Home › MLB › Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers
MLB
Tampa Bay Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
3 - 4
Final
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
Los Angeles Dodgers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
53% Lean
53% Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
"Martinez (2.43 ERA) vs Lauer (5.47) is baseball's biggest pitching mismatch tonight — Rays +153 ML shows +16.5% EV, backed by 67.9% MC win rate."
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
63%
TOTAL under 9.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
43.7%
ML
129 / -129

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Tampa Bay Rays

Los Angeles Dodgers

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -150 / 126 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -144 / 130 -
Value Line - -155 / 125 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (280) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (144) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 155 / -155 -137 / 137 O/U 105 / -105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Tampa Bay Rays

J
Jonny DeLuca
(RF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Wednesday that DeLuca (hamstring) could be activated from the 10-day injured list during this weekend's series versus the Nationals, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 60-day IL — Lux (shoulder) is scheduled to take live batting practice against teammate Craig Kimbrel (wrist) on Tuesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jonathan Heasley
(RP) 60-day IL — Heasley was returned to the major-league roster and placed on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right elbow stress reaction.
60-Day-IL
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez (elbow) has no timetable to progress to facing live hitters, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays hope Wilson (back) will be able to start bullpen sessions June 8, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — Manager Kevin Cash said Friday that Uceta (shoulder) suffered a setback and received a PRP injection, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) started a rehab assignment with the Florida Complex League Rays on Saturday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesse Scholtens
(RP) 15-day IL — Scholtens was charged with a blown save and dropped to 5-3 on the season in Monday's 9-7 loss to the Orioles in 13 innings after yielding five runs (three earned) on four hits across 1.1 frames. He struck out one batter.
15-Day-IL
J
Jake Fraley
(RF) 10-day IL — Rays manager Kevin Cash said Monday that Fraley (hernia) will require surgery and will face a recovery timeline of 6-to-8 weeks, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day

Los Angeles Dodgers

T
Teoscar Hernandez
(LF) 10-day IL — Hernandez (hamstring) will take live batting practice Thursday and could be ready to begin a rehab assignment early next week, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Will Smith
(C) 10-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Wednesday that it's "unlikely" Smith (neck) will be activated from the 10-day injured list Friday when first eligible, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tyler Glasnow
(SP) 60-day IL — Glasnow (back) has yet to resume throwing, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Edwin Diaz
(RP) 60-day IL — Diaz (elbow) is scheduled to throw a bullpen session this week, Katie Woo of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brock Stewart
(RP) 15-day IL — Stewart (foot) will begin a rehab assignment at Single-A Ontario on Friday.
15-Day-IL
K
Kendall George
(CF) out — George hasn't played for Double-A Tulsa since suffering an injury to his left patellar tendon in a May 25 game versus Northwest Arkansas, Alden Gonzalez of ESPN.com reports.
Out
C
Chris Campos
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
B
Blake Snell
(SP) 60-day IL — Snell (elbow) began playing catch Friday, Sonja Chen of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Evan Phillips
(RP) 60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Oklahoma City on Thursday, yielding one hit and one walk over two-thirds of a scoreless frame.
60-Day-IL
B
Bobby Miller
(SP) 60-day IL — Miller (shoulder/back) will resume throwing off the mound this week, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Stone
(SP) 60-day IL — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts revealed Tuesday that Stone has been unable to ramp up his throwing without feeling soreness in his surgically repaired right shoulder, Cody Snavely of DodgersBeat.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brusdar Graterol
(RP) 60-day IL — Graterol (shoulder) underwent surgery recently for a back injury he suffered while on a rehab assignment, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enrique Hernandez
(1B) 10-day IL — Hernandez is expected to be out for 6-to-8 weeks after sustaining a "significant tear" of his left oblique during Tuesday's 15-6 win over the Rockies, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Ben Casparius
(RP) 60-day IL — Casparius (shoulder) was moved to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
L
Landon Knack
(SP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Knack (chest) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Cousins
(RP) 60-day IL — The Dodgers transferred Cousins (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Box Score
FINAL
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
3
-
Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers
4
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
53% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Tampa Bay Rays @ Los Angeles Dodgers

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 53% Lean
"Martinez (2.43 ERA) vs Lauer (5.47) is baseball's biggest pitching mismatch tonight — Rays +153 ML shows +16.5% EV, backed by 67.9% MC win rate."
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.9%
Line Movement
Current Dodgers -1.5 / Total 9.5 / ML Dodgers -186
Movement No significant movement detected — line is settled.
Starting Pitcher Mismatch: Eric Lauer (5.47 ERA) vs Nick Martinez (2.43 ERA) — massive gap favoring Rays. Dodgers injuries: Will Smith, Tommy Edman, Brock Stewart out — lineup depth thinned. Wind 12 mph blowing out at Dodger Stadium — slight over aid, but not extreme.
Negative EV on Dodgers spread. calibrated spread posterior is 46.1% vs market 50.0% — no edge. The spread is a fade.
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive pitching mismatch: Nick Martinez (2.43) vs Eric Lauer (5.47) gives Rays tremendous value as +153 road dogs. MC simulation says Rays win outright 67.9% — that's a 20pp edge over the market-implied 35%. Bayesian fusion flags low model agreement but the pitching delta is undeniable. Wind at 12 mph helps both offenses but doesn't close the gap. Dodgers' injuries (Smith, Edman) thin their lineup further. Sharp money says home spread, but that fails the MC test. Rays ML at +153 is a sharp contrarian play with strong +EV validation.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp money shows 8.2% edge on home spread with strong signal, but MC simulation and Bayesian spread posterior both heavily favor away side on the spread. Sharp signal may be stale or modeling a different game state.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
+3.2 EV 53% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+16.5 EV 63% 1u
TOTAL under 9.5
+2.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Tampa Bay Rays 153
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 64.1% home is only 1pp below market — but our MC sim says Rays win 67.9%, and +EV analysis shows away ML on some books with +19.8% EV via spread
  • This is a sharp contrarian spot
SPREAD PICK
○ 53%
Tampa Bay Rays 1.5
  • Nick Martinez (2.43 ERA) vs Eric Lauer (5.47) is a massive pitching mismatch favoring the Rays; MC gives Rays +1.5 a 67.9% cover rate
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 9.5
  • Bayesian total posterior shows over 65.2% (edge +15.2pp) but MC simulation gives under 70.2% at 22.5 — model splits
  • With two quality starters, wind is non-extreme; regression favors under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rays +1.5 gets a lean from whale money ($1.8M) and a 3.9pp Bayesian edge, but missing pitcher data caps confidence at 58.
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