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NFL
Indianapolis Colts
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
7 - 42
Final
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
Jacksonville Jaguars
Full Game Analysis
NFL
Ω DDN SI PICK LATE TO MARKET
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0
EV / $100
+2.4
Win Prob
93%
Edge
+11.6%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Jacksonville Jaguars None
50%
TOTAL under 45.5
56%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Weather Impact
Jacksonville: Patchy rain nearby | 79°F | Wind 14 mph
⚠️ PRECIPITATION (Patchy rain nearby): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
DDN SI LINE DDN SI Independent Projection
Spread
-13.5
Edge: -3.5
Total
47.0
Edge: +1.5
Win Prob
93.4%
ML
-1424 / 1424
⚠
Key Number Alert
KEY NUMBER: Spread at -10.0 — 5.8% of NFL games land on 10. Buying the half point is worth ~2.9% win probability. Pay up to -120 for the buy. OMEGA line (-13.5) disagrees by 3.5 pts — added value in the half-point buy.

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

Indianapolis Colts

Jacksonville Jaguars

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -480 / 365 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -464 / 379 -
Sharp Action Best Line -10.0 (-112) - -
Market Consensus -10.5 (107) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 46.5 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 45.5 (-104)
Value Line - - Over 49.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 112 / -112 -432 / 432 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Indianapolis Colts

J
Jonathan Taylor
(RB) active — Taylor rushed eight times for 23 yards and brought in four of five targets for 24 yards in the Colts' 42-7 loss to the Jaguars on Sunday. He also lost a fumble.
Active
D
Daniel Jones
(QB) active — Head coach Shane Steichen said after Sunday's 42-7 loss at Jacksonville that he'll evaluate "everything, including whether" Jones remains the Colts' starting quarterback, James Boyd of The Athletic reports.
Active
R
Riley Leonard
(QB) out — Leonard (coach's decision) is inactive but will serve as the emergency third quarterback against the Jaguars on Sunday, JJ Stankevitz of the Colts' official site reports.
Out
D
Drew Ogletree
(TE) active — Ogletree (knee) is active Week 8 against the Jaguars.
Active
B
Bryce Boettcher
(LB) out — Boettcher (groin) is inactive Week 8 against the Jaguars.
Out
J
Justin Walley
(CB) out — inactive
Out
K
Kevin Givens
(DT) out — inactive
Out
A
Anthony Gould
(WR) out — inactive
Out
C
Charlie Heck
(OT) out — inactive
Out
P
Pharaoh Brown
(TE) out — inactive
Out
J
Josh Downs
(WR) active — Colts head coach Shane Steichen said Friday that Downs will perform his usual role Sunday against Jacksonville in spite of the fact that he requested a trade this week, Stephen Holder of ESPN.com reports.
Active
T
Tyler Warren
(TE) active — Warren (groin) is good to go for Sunday's game against the Jaguars, Mike Chappell of FOX59 reports.
Active
S
Sauce Gardner
(CB) active — Gardner (calf) practiced in full Thursday.
Active
M
Matt Goncalves
(G) active
Active
T
Tim Smith
(DT) active
Active
C
CJ Allen
(LB) active — Allen (ankle) was listed as a full participant in Wednesday's walkthrough.
Active
A
Akeem Davis-Gaither
(LB) active — Davis-Gaither recorded seven tackles (three solo) in Sunday's loss to Minnesota.
Active
A
Adetomiwa Adebawore
(DT) active — Adebawore finished Sunday's loss to Minnesota with five tackles (four solo), including 2.0 sacks, and a defensed pass.
Active
A
A.J. Haulcy
(S) active — Haulcy produced nine tackles (five solo) in a loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Active
C
Cam Taylor-Britt
(CB) Injured Reserve — The Colts placed Taylor-Britt on injured reserve Tuesday due to a groin injury, Nathan Brown of The Indianapolis Star reports.
Injured Reserve
D
DJ Giddens
(RB) active — Giddens did not play a single snap during Sunday's 13-10 loss to the Vikings.
Active
W
Will Mallory
(TE) active — Mallory did not catch any of his three targets during Sunday's 16-10 loss to Minnesota.
Active
M
Mo Alie-Cox
(TE) active — Alie-Cox failed to haul in either of his targets during the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Active
L
Laquon Treadwell
(WR) active — Treadwell caught both of his targets for 19 yards in the Colts' 16-10 loss to the Vikings on Sunday.
Active
S
Seth McGowan
(RB) active — McGowan turned 11 carries into 46 yards, caught his only target for two yards and added 140 yards as a kick returner during Sunday's 16-10 loss to the Vikings.
Active

Jacksonville Jaguars

B
Bhayshul Tuten
(RB) active — Tuten rushed 16 times for 104 yards and a touchdown and brought in both targets for 55 yards and another score in the Jaguars' 42-7 win over the Colts on Sunday.
Active
T
Travon Walker
(DE) questionable — Walker (ribs) is questionable to return to Sunday's game against the Colts.
Questionable
D
DaVon Hamilton
(DT) questionable — Hamilton (knee) won't return to Sunday's game against Indianapolis.
Questionable
E
Ezra Cleveland
(G) questionable — questionable
Questionable
E
Eric Murray
(S) questionable — Murray (elbow) won't return to Sunday's game against the Colts, John Oehser of the Jaguars' official site reports.
Questionable
C
CJ Williams
(WR) out — inactive
Out
W
Wesley Williams
(DE) out — inactive
Out
A
Albert Regis
(DT) out — inactive
Out
J
Jamal Hill
(LB) out — inactive
Out
A
Alijah Huzzie
(CB) out — inactive
Out
A
Antonio Johnson
(S) out — inactive
Out
J
Jakobi Meyers
(WR) active — Meyers (hamstring) is listed as active for Sunday's game against the Colts.
Active
R
Ross Matiscik
(LS) active — Matiscik (shoulder) does not have a game designation for Sunday's clash against the Colts.
Active
L
LeQuint Allen Jr.
(RB) active — Allen (hamstring) does not carry an injury designation into Sunday's game against the Colts.
Active
R
Ruke Orhorhoro
(DT) active
Active
J
Jahlani Tavai
(LB) active
Active
M
Montaric Brown
(CB) active — Brown (hamstring) was a full participant in Wednesday's practice.
Active
A
Anton Harrison
(OT) Injured Reserve — Harrison was diagnosed with a torn ACL while undergoing a procedure on his right knee Thursday, Ian Rapoport of NFL Network reports.
Injured Reserve
F
Foyesade Oluokun
(LB) active — Oluokun logged eight tackles (four solo) in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans in London on Sunday.
Active
J
Josh Cameron
(WR) active — Cameron didn't garner a target and recorded 46 kickoff-return yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans.
Active
C
Cam Little
(PK) active — Little made his sole field-goal attempt and all four of his PATs in the Jaguars' 34-31 loss to the Texans on Sunday in London.
Active
N
Nate Boerkircher
(TE) active — Boerkircher caught both of his targets for eight yards and a touchdown during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans.
Active
J
Jalen Huskey
(S) active
Active
B
Brenton Strange
(TE) active — Strange caught five of seven targets for 44 yards during Sunday's 34-31 loss to the Texans.
Active
C
Chris Rodriguez Jr.
(RB) active — Rodriguez rushed 11 times for 55 yards while failing to reel in his only target during Sunday's 34-31 loss to Houston.
Active
Box Score
FINAL
Indianapolis Colts
Colts
7
-
Jacksonville Jaguars
Jaguars
42
Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0
58% conf
W

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Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

+2.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Jacksonville Jaguars 58% Lean
DDN SI sees no actionable edge on this game. Jaguars -10 (model -13.5 key-number edge) NFL-validated cell yields 58 confidence with the ML (-485, 82.9% breakeven) as a hard — spread, not juice, is where the value lives.
93% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 93%
Book Implied 82%
Edge +11.6%
Line Movement
Current Jaguars -10.0, total 45.5, ML -485/370
Movement No opening line supplied; NFL key-number spot at -10.0
PRECIPITATION (Patchy rain nearby): +18% under, +25% fumbles (NFL)
Model sees 93.4% home win prob vs 81.8% book-implied on a -485 ML, but breakeven of 82.9% on this price is far above our ML-recommendation thresholds — the only market where odds are payable is the spread, not the juiced moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega's independent line (-13.5 via Poisson 30.2-16.9 and ELO) is 3.5 pts sharper than the -10.0 market, and the -10 key number justifies paying up to -120 for the half-point buy. Exponential momentum gap 26.8 vs 19.1 backs the Jaguars spread; moneyline at -485 is unplayable (82.9% breakeven). Patchy rain drives a modest under lean at 45.5, but omega's 47.0 projection cuts that confidence. All confidence held to 65 max because this sport is outside the validated edge slate.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0
+2.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Jacksonville Jaguars None
+1.3 EV 50%
TOTAL under 45.5
+1.2 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 50%
Jacksonville Jaguars -485
  • At -485, breakeven is 82.9%, above the -250 hard rule threshold, and one loss wipes 4.85 units; model 93.4% might beat it but the ROI math disables ML at this juice
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
Jacksonville Jaguars -10.0
  • Omega independent line -13.5 vs market -10.0 (exponential momentum 26.8 vs 19.1) supports the home side, and the -10.0 key number allows half-point value, but the 3.5-pt model/market gap prevents higher confidence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 56%
UNDER 45.5
  • Patchy rain nearby drives the documented +18% under-adjustment, and Jaguars defense faces a 19.1 recent-form Colts offense under 20 pts/game — totals are historically the weakest market, so confidence remains 56
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Jags -10: model line -13.5 on a 93.4% home profile, skipping the -500 ML for the spread where the 3.5-pt edge still pays.
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