Home › NHL › Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche
NHL
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Colorado Avalanche
Avalanche
Colorado Avalanche
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +28.8% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Avalanche Colorado Avalanche -1.5
"COL puck -1.5 +27.9% EV (sharp 10.8% edge vs Pinnacle) + extreme $245k whales 96% home + MIN injury carnage net +9.5%"
EV / $100
+27.9
Win Prob
67%
Edge
+17.2%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
62%
TOTAL under 6.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 11.3% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: home Boost: +3
Whale Activity Detected
$245500 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (95% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 32 trades Kalshi: 235 trades Largest: $26272

Player Props Engine

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Minnesota Wild

Colorado Avalanche

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -205 / 173 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -200 / 174 -
Value Line - -205 / 175 -
Sharp Action Best Line -2.5 (205) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (127) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 24.5 (-120)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 137 / -137 -188 / 188 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Wild

J
Joel Eriksson Ek
(C) out — Eriksson Ek (lower body) will miss the first two games of Minnesota's second-round series against Colorado, according to Michael Russo of The Athletic on Sunday.
Out
J
Jonas Brodin
(D) out — Brodin (lower body) will miss at least the beginning of Minnesota's second-round series against Colorado, Dylan Loucks of The Hockey News reports Saturday.
Out
C
Charlie Stramel
(C) out — Stramel signed a three-year, entry-level contract extension with the Wild on Monday.
Out

Colorado Avalanche

J
Josh Manson
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Joel Kiviranta
(LW) out — Kiviranta (undisclosed) hasn't resumed skating yet, according to Bailey Curtis of DNVR Sports on Sunday.
Out
Game Preview
Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread -2.5 (205)
Total Over 24.5
Key Injuries
Joel Eriksson Ek Out
Jonas Brodin Out
Josh Manson Day-To-Day
Joel Kiviranta Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Minnesota Wild @ Colorado Avalanche

+27.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Avalanche 65% Sharp Lean
"COL puck -1.5 +27.9% EV (sharp 10.8% edge vs Pinnacle) + extreme $245k whales 96% home + MIN injury carnage net +9.5%"
67% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 67%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +17.2%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line COL -1.5 (-205), ML COL -205 / MIN +170, Total 6.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement
Net injury advantage: Home +9.5%
FULL ANALYSIS
MIN crippled by critical outs (Brodin, Eriksson Ek -18.9% lambda hit) vs COL milder injuries (+9.5% net edge). Extreme whale steam $245k 96% home (institutional tier) aligns sharp 10.8% home puck divergence + RLM under total. Bayesian ML posterior flat but +EV analysis flags 27.9% home puck value vs Pinnacle; data degraded caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
10.8% sharp edge on home spread (strong), RLM on total under, moderate away ML offset by overall home lean
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Avalanche -1.5
+27.9 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Colorado Avalanche None
62% 0.5u
TOTAL under 6.5
+2.9 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Colorado Avalanche -205
  • Posterior exactly matches implied 67.2%, whales extreme $245k 96% home conviction
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Colorado Avalanche -1.5
  • +27.9% EV on home puck vs Pinnacle fair value (41.2% home cover), 10.8% sharp divergence
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 6.5
  • Sharp edge 2.9% under + RLM confirmation, cross-market defensive lean
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Avs +9.5% injury/altitude edge vs Brodin-less Wild, sharp 11.1% on -2 & 17.5% over 4.8
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