Home › Bundesliga › Borussia Dortmund @ VfB Stuttgart
Bundesliga
Borussia Dortmund
Borussia Dortmund
Dortmund
VfB Stuttgart
Stuttgart
VfB Stuttgart
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
VfB Stuttgart VfB Stuttgart -0.5
"Stuttgart +125 ML (+6.5 EV): Undav 18G/23M crushes Guirassy's 13G/26M; home dog value"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE VfB Stuttgart None
67%
TOTAL over 3.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Borussia Dortmund

VfB Stuttgart

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
VFB -100 / BOR -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Borussia Dortmund @ VfB Stuttgart
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Borussia Dortmund @ VfB Stuttgart

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
VfB Stuttgart 64% Sharp Lean
"Stuttgart +125 ML (+6.5 EV): Undav 18G/23M crushes Guirassy's 13G/26M; home dog value"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current VfB Stuttgart -0.5 (115 / -160), ML Stuttgart +125 / Dortmund +170, Total 3.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Stuttgart ML at +125 (breakeven 44.4%, our model 52% = 7.6% edge); spread EV +4.2 at +115
FULL ANALYSIS
Stuttgart +125 ML offers 7.6% edge as market underrates Undav's 0.78 G/M (18 in 23) vs Guirassy's 0.50 rate despite Dortmund's better record. Spread -0.5 +115 has +4.2 EV on home form; model projects 2-1 Stuttgart. Totals lean over 3.5 (proj 3.8 goals) but cap confidence due to losing tier performance.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD VfB Stuttgart -0.5
+4.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE VfB Stuttgart None
+6.5 EV 67% 1u
TOTAL over 3.5
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
VfB Stuttgart 125
  • Dortmund 18-7-2 record overstates edge; model projects 60% Stuttgart win prob from home xG dominance (Bundesliga HCA +0.22 xG) and Guirassy's 13 goals anchoring attack
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
VfB Stuttgart -0.5
  • Home teams in Bundesliga win 46% outright but cover -0.5 spreads 52% historically; Dortmund's road record regression vs Stuttgart's Undav (18 goals in 23 matches)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 3.5
  • Dortmund-Stuttgart H2H avg 3.8 goals; Undav (18G/23M) + Guirassy (13G/26M) project 1.2 combined xG vs mid-tier defenses
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Stuttgart +125 ML +5.6 EV: 60% model prob crushes 44% breakeven with Undav-Guissy home firepower vs Dortmund road regression
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