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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
MONEYLINE
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies None
"PHI ML -219 (+3.2 EV): Coors home dogs 28% SU, Sanchez 0.79 ERA torches Rockies staff"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
1%
Edge
-49.3%
Size
1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
64%
TOTAL over 10.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Philadelphia Phillies

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 176 / -198 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (113) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 10.0 (-113)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG 119 / -119 183 / -183 O/U -105 / 105
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

O
Orion Kerkering
(RP) 15-day IL — Kerkering (hamstring) will make the second of back-to-back rehab appearances Wednesday at Triple-A Lehigh Valley, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Aidan Miller
(SS) day-to-day — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Miller (back) has increased his rehab activities but is not yet swinging a bat, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Wheeler
(SP) 15-day IL — Wheeler (shoulder) struck out three and scattered two hits and one walk over three scoreless frames in a rehab start Saturday for Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 15-day IL — Phillies manager Rob Thomson said Tuesday that Lazar is dealing with a "mild" oblique injury and is returning to big-league camp to be evaluated, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Michael Mercado
(RP) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Mercado (shoulder) to minor-league camp Thursday, Todd Zolecki of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christian McGowan
(RP) out — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Out

Colorado Rockies

J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 15-day IL — Quintana came away with the no-decision in the Rockies' 4-3 loss to the Marlins on Sunday. He allowed two runs on four hits and four walks while striking out two across 4.1 innings.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) day-to-day — Feltner was removed from his start Tuesday against the Blue Jays due to a right glute contusion.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zac Veen
(LF) 10-day IL — Veen (knee) went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts in his first rehab game with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Blaine Crim
(1B) 10-day IL — Crim (oblique) went 1-for-3 with a single in his first rehab game with Triple-A Albuquerque on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(RF) 10-day IL — The Rockies placed Moniak (finger) on the 10-day injured list Friday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Criswell (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (113)
Total Over 10.0
Key Injuries
Orion Kerkering 15-Day-IL
Aidan Miller Day-To-Day
Jose Quintana 15-Day-IL
Ryan Feltner Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Colorado Rockies

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 67% Sharp Lean
"PHI ML -219 (+3.2 EV): Coors home dogs 28% SU, Sanchez 0.79 ERA torches Rockies staff"
1% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 1%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -49.3%
Line Movement
Current PHI -219 ML / Total 10.0
Movement No movement data
Coors Field altitude +35% scoring bias Early season (small sample)
Breakeven 68.7% → our 72% exceeds by 3.3%; marginal ML value but Coors altitude edge justifies
Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — MLB 76-63 (N=139); 5-2 vs Rockies, 3-7 vs Phillies
FULL ANALYSIS
PHI -219 has +3.3% edge at Coors where home dogs ≥+170 lose 72% SU (N=100); Sanchez 0.79 ERA dominates Freeland's 5.12 road xFIP. Total 10 projects to 12.1 with +35% Coors bias but totals losing 33-51% across tiers—spec over only. Model ML profitable in 68-72 (57.6%) despite Phillies 3-7 vs model.
SHARP MONEY
No RLM/steam data; PHI priced correctly for Coors visitor dominance (Rockies 28-72 SU home dogs last 100)
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+3.2 EV 67% 1u
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+2.1 EV 64% 0.5u
TOTAL over 10.0
+1.8 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Philadelphia Phillies -188
  • 65.3% model prob exceeds -188 breakeven (65.3%) by threshold; ELO 54.4% home win
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Philadelphia Phillies 0.0
  • Omega ELO projects Phillies +1.2 spread edge despite Poisson even scores
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 24.0
  • Coors Field effect on 24.0 total with 12-12 expected scores (Poisson variance favors O)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies ML -188 (65% model > breakeven) + ELO spread edge at Coors; Sanchez dominates (+3.2 EV)
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