MLS
San Jose Earthquakes
Earthquake
Seattle Sounders FC
FC
Whale Activity Detected
$222728 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (77% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 98 trades
Kalshi: 308 trades
Largest: $6917
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
40.1%
ML
149 / -149
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGASan Jose Earthquakes
Seattle Sounders FC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-2.6
Moneyline
SEA 146
/
SAN -146
Win Probability
41%
-
59%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
San Jose Earthquakes @ Seattle Sounders FC
+-3.7 EV
per $100 wagered
San Jose Earthquakes
54%
Lean
"SJ +235 ML (53.5% posterior vs 30% implied, +79 EV) + O2.5 (65% posterior, omega 7.5 total) despite whale steam on SEA"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
54%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+3.5%
Line Movement
Current
SEA -0.5 (-115/-125), Total 2.5, ML SEA -105 / SJ +235
Movement
No significant movement
+EV on SJ ML due to 53.5% posterior vs ~30% implied; total over also +23.9 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows 46.5% SEA win prob vs 51.2% implied (-4.7pp), with MC 38.5% home/47% away confirming SJ ML value at +235 (79 EV/100). Total 2.5 crushed by omega 7.5, Dixon-Coles 6.4 combined goals, over posterior 64.9% (+14.9pp, 24 EV). Extreme whales ($222k) on SEA contradict but Tier 1 quant edge dominates; degraded data caps at leans/sharp leans.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume ($222k, 78% confidence, 12 wallets) on SEA despite model edge to SJ
MONEYLINE PICK
○
54%
San Jose Earthquakes 235
- Away ML posterior 53.5% vs market prior 48.8% (+4.7pp edge), MC away win 47%
SPREAD PICK
○
54%
San Jose Earthquakes 0.5
- Omega spread even (0.0) vs market SEA -0.5, MC away cover 47%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
63%
OVER 2.5
- Over 2.5 posterior 64.9% vs 50% implied (+14.9pp); omega total 7.5, MC proj 6.6, Dixon-Coles 6.4 combined
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
SJ +235 ML (53.5% posterior vs 29.9% implied, +$79 EV/100); over 2.5 +14.9pp edge (omega 7.5 total) despite whale steam home
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