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MLB
Cincinnati Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
New York Yankees
Yankees
New York Yankees
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +39.1% EV ALIGNED
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
New York Yankees New York Yankees -1.5
"Yankees spread +190 on Bovada vs Pinnacle fair 47.9% — +38.8% EV anomaly backed by $1.17M whale volume and 14.8% sharp divergence"
EV / $100
+6.2
Win Prob
69%
Edge
+2.3%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
65%
TOTAL over 9.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1172816 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (85% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 377 trades Kalshi: 83 trades Largest: $50520
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.0
Win Prob
47.5%
ML
111 / -111

Player Props Engine

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Cincinnati Reds

New York Yankees

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -204 / 167 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -196 / 175 -
Value Line - -205 / 163 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (190) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (102) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.5 (100)
De-Vigged Fair Value 108 / -108 -187 / 187 O/U 107 / -107
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cincinnati Reds

H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) struck out six over four scoreless frames Thursday in his first rehab start with the Reds' Arizona Complex League affiliate.
60-Day-IL
K
Ke'Bryan Hayes
(3B) 10-day IL — Hayes (back) has begun hitting at the Reds' training facility in Arizona, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan (hamstring) threw a bullpen session Tuesday and is scheduled to pitch in a simulated game/live batting practice session at Yankee Stadium on Friday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Pierce Johnson
(RP) 15-day IL — Johnson (elbow) is scheduled to begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Elly De La Cruz
(SS) 10-day IL — De La Cruz (hamstring) is scheduled to begin running Tuesday and Wednesday, and he will begin a rehab assignment Friday with Triple-A Gwinnett, C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) 60-day IL — Ashcraft (elbow) received a platelet-rich plasma injection Tuesday, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out

New York Yankees

M
Max Fried
(SP) 15-day IL — Fried (elbow) will throw a bullpen session this weekend, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) tossed a side session Wednesday and is "a couple of weeks" away from facing live hitters, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
A
Austin Wells
(C) 10-day IL — Wells (head) went 2-for-5 with two homers and three RBI in a rehab appearance with Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre on Thursday.
10-Day-IL
T
Trent Grisham
(CF) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Tuesday that Grisham has been diagnosed with a "moderate" right hamstring strain, Brendan Kuty of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Giancarlo Stanton
(DH) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced that Stanton (calf) reinjured his calf and will have a slow week of activities, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Eric Reyzelman
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Aaron Judge
(RF) 10-day IL — The Yankees announced Thursday that Judge has a stress fracture of his first rib on his right side and will be sidelined for 4-to-6 weeks before being re-evaluated, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor underwent Tommy John surgery last September and will miss the entire 2019 season, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (190)
Total Over 9.5
Key Injuries
Hunter Greene 60-Day-IL
Ke'Bryan Hayes 10-Day-IL
Max Fried 15-Day-IL
Clarke Schmidt 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees

+6.2 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Yankees 64% Sharp Lean
"Yankees spread +190 on Bovada vs Pinnacle fair 47.9% — +38.8% EV anomaly backed by $1.17M whale volume and 14.8% sharp divergence"
69% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 69%
Book Implied 67%
Edge +2.3%
Line Movement
Open ML -199 home / +163 away; Total 9.5; Spread -1.5 home
Current ML -199 home / +163 away; Total 9.5; Spread -1.5 home
Movement No movement detected — lines are stable since open
Reds missing star SS Elly De La Cruz (10-Day IL) — lineup downgrade Yankees missing Giancarlo Stanton (IL) but lineup still deep Yankees also without ace Max Fried (15-Day IL) — bullpen game risk Sharp edge 14.8% on home side spread — strong signal from Pinnacle-vs-retail divergence Whale volume extreme ($1.17M on home side) — institutional conviction on Yankees
calibrated shows 68.9% win prob vs market 66.6% — a +2.3pp edge. At -199 odds, this translates to ~$3.40 EV per $100 wagered. Small but positive edge is supported by sharp money alignment.
FULL ANALYSIS
The sharpest signal in this game is the spread: Pinnacle fair value shows home cover at 47.9% but retail Bovada is offering +190 — a +38.8% EV anomaly that's rare in MLB. Whale volume of $1.17M (86% on home) and 14.8% sharp divergence confirm institutional money behind the Yankees. Total over is supported by a massive +15.2pp Bayesian edge, though the Omega independent line (22.5 total) is clearly inflated — reduce confidence there. The ML at -199 is barely +EV (+3.4%) and carries heavy juice risk; prefer the spread for better risk/reward with lower implied breakeven.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 14.8% favoring home, with extreme whale volume ($1.17M at 86% conviction). Pinnacle fair value on spread shows home 47.9% vs retail Bovada at +190 — that's a +38.8% EV opportunity on spread. Sharp bets are concentrated on the home side despite the -199 ML juice.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Yankees -1.5
+6.2 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+3.4 EV 65% 1.0u
TOTAL over 9.5
+5.1 EV 64% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
New York Yankees -199
  • Bayesian posterior 68.9% vs market 66.6% — +2.3pp edge with sharp whale confirmation ($1.17M volume) and +EV Pinnacle fair value (65% vs retail 66.6%)
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
New York Yankees -1.5
  • Sharp edge 14.8% and +38.8% EV on Bovada spread line (home +190 vs Pinnacle fair 47.9%) — extreme market inefficiency
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 64%
OVER 9.5
  • Bayesian total posterior 65.2% over vs market 50% — +15.2pp edge, the strongest single signal in this game
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
No actionable edge — 0% EV on all sides, POOR data quality (41%), missing odds and pitcher data. Pure pass.
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