Home › MLB › Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
"Phillies +1.5 at -110: sharp signal but degraded data; small edge only."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+1.4%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
58%
TOTAL over 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$213693 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 70 trades Kalshi: 1 trades Largest: $34971
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
40.4%
ML
148 / -148

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -115 / -105 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -110 / -100 -
Value Line - -118 / -106 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (360) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (184) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 200 / -200 -105 / 105 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Horwitz
(1B) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Wilber Dotel
(RP) 15-day IL — Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mitch Jebb
(LF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 60-day IL — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

Philadelphia Phillies

B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller (forearm) has progressed to playing catch, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) 60-day IL — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (360)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jared Jones Day-To-Day
Spencer Horwitz 10-Day-IL
Brad Keller 15-Day-IL
Johan Rojas 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 62% Lean
"Phillies +1.5 at -110: sharp signal but degraded data; small edge only."
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 52%
Edge +1.4%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5 (-110), Total: 8.5 (-110), Moneyline: Home -109 / Away -110
Movement No significant line movement detected.
Small positive edge at current price; not enough for strong confidence.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is backing the Phillies on the run line with a 13.5% divergence, but data quality is degraded and model disagreement is high. The Bayesian total posterior shows a huge over edge, but the OMEGA line is implausible (22.5 total), suggesting model error. Best to lean towards the Phillies +1.5 with low conviction.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread (13.5% divergence, strong signal) but ML edge is moderate away; overall sharp favors home side.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
+2.9 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+2.6 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 55% 0u (PASS)
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Philadelphia Phillies -109
  • Bayesian posterior suggests 53.5% win probability vs market 52.1%
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Philadelphia Phillies 1.5
  • Sharp signal with 13.5% divergence on spread; Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% cover probability
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior indicates 65.2% probability for over, but model quality is unreliable
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Monte Carlo projects 70.3% under at 22.5 total; home ML thin edge from Bayesian fusion.
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700

SIGNAL · LIVE