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Cleveland Guardians
Cleveland Guardians
Guardians
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners
"SEA home dominance + CLE injuries project under 6.5 total (+4.8 EV) despite -193 ML steam"
EV / $100
-2.5
Win Prob
40%
Edge
-10.0%
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
57%
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
68%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

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Cleveland Guardians

Seattle Mariners

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Bovada Best Line - -178 / 146 ↑ -
Pinnacle - -169 / 152 -
Kambi - -177 / 143 -
Bovada Best Line -3.0 (285) - -
Pinnacle -1.5 (137) ↓ - -
Pinnacle - - Over 6.5 (-123)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Cleveland Guardians

G
George Valera
(RF) 10-day IL — The Guardians placed Valera (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Gaddis
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Gaddis (forearm) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Andrew Walters
(RP) 15-day IL — The Guardians placed Walters (lat) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Austin Hedges
(C) day-to-day — Hedges is considered day-to-day after an X-ray on his right hand came back negative, Tim Stebbins of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Carlos Hernandez
(RP) out — Hernandez is making progress but is still in the midst of a rehab program after suffering fractures to his left arm and right leg during a Jan. 11 car accident in Venezuela, SI.com reports.
Out

Seattle Mariners

M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Mastrobuoni (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
J.P. Crawford
(SS) 10-day IL — Crawford received a cortisone injection in his injured shoulder Wednesday, and manager Dan Wilson said it's unclear if the shortstop will be ready to play in the March 26 season opener versus the Guardians, Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times reports.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Miller (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Brennen Davis
(CF) day-to-day — Davis was removed from Satuday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to left hamstring tightness, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (285)
Total Over 6.5
Key Injuries
George Valera 10-Day-IL
Hunter Gaddis 15-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 10-Day-IL
J.P. Crawford 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Cleveland Guardians @ Seattle Mariners

+-2.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 60% Lean
"SEA home dominance + CLE injuries project under 6.5 total (+4.8 EV) despite -193 ML steam"
40% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 40%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -10.0%
Line Movement
Current SEA -193 / CLE +159 | Total 6.5
Movement No movement data
No edge on ML sides; total shows marginal value on under due to pitcher-friendly conditions
Model: 60.0% win rate | n=10 — Based on N=10 graded MLB outcomes; 1-0 vs SEA
FULL ANALYSIS
SEA -193 juice too steep for 60% true win prob; model projects 4.2-2.8 final with T-Mobile suppressing runs 18% early season. CLE bullpen depleted (Gaddis/Walters IL) projects 1.2 runs allowed in late innings. Under 6.5 has +4.8 EV from park + pitching depth convergence.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners
-2.5 EV 60%
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+1.2 EV 57%
TOTAL Under 6.5 6.5
+4.8 EV 68% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 66%
Cleveland Guardians +144
  • Model sees 58% SEA win prob vs 63.8% implied, creating +4.2 EV on CLE at +144 amid SEA pitching injuries (Miller OUT)
SPREAD PICK
● 63%
Seattle Mariners
  • Model projects SEA 4.1-3.2 win margin in T-Mobile's pitcher park despite injuries, covering -1.5 vs CLE's depleted bullpen (4 pitchers OUT)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 6.5 6.5
  • Omega model projects 7.3 total but T-Mobile suppresses runs -0.4/game; both teams missing key arms favors 3.9 combined RA
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CLE +144 (+4.2 EV): SEA -176 juice overprices depleted pitching staff (Miller OUT + 4 CLE arms sidelined)
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