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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Baltimore Orioles
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.5% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Baltimore Orioles Baltimore Orioles -1.5
"BAL -1.5 w/ 13.7% sharp edge + extreme whale home action ($1.6M vol) despite flat ML posterior"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+8.9%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
59%
TOTAL over 9.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1658547 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 69 trades Kalshi: 3248 trades Largest: $190620

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Baltimore Orioles

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -136 / 110 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (280) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (150) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value 161 / -161 -127 / 127 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) is slated to begin a minor-league rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Pena (hamstring) did some running Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cody Bolton
(SP) 15-day IL — Bolton (back) will throw a live batting practice session Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw 20 pitches in a live batting practice session Tuesday and said afterward that it was akin to his first live BP of spring training, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL

Baltimore Orioles

D
Dean Kremer
(SP) 15-day IL — Kremer (quadriceps) is expected to miss several weeks, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Dietrich Enns
(RP) 15-day IL — Enns (foot) threw a clean inning in a rehab outing for Triple-A Norfolk on Friday.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Holliday
(2B) 10-day IL — Holliday (wrist) said Friday that he underwent an MRI, CT scan and X-rays that came back clean and will be shut down from baseball activities for about a week, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Y
Yaramil Hiraldo
(RP) 60-day IL — Hiraldo is scheduled to meet with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday to receive a second opinion on his inflamed right shoulder, Andy Kostka of TheBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
H
Heston Kjerstad
(LF) 10-day IL — Kjerstad (hamstring) is running and participating in baseball activities, per MLB.com.
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Mountcastle
(1B) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Mountcastle (foot) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Eflin
(SP) 60-day IL — Eflin underwent Tommy John surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Westburg
(3B) 60-day IL — Westburg (elbow) will begin a throwing progression this week, Jake Rill of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Richard Guasch
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Luis Vazquez
(SS) day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Monday that Vazquez has been diagnosed with a broken right thumb, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keagan Gillies
(P) day-to-day — Gillies will be sidelined for at least six weeks with a quad injury, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
F
Felix Bautista
(RP) 60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Colin Selby
(RP) 60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (280)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Tatsuya Imai 15-Day-IL
Hunter Brown 15-Day-IL
Dean Kremer 15-Day-IL
Dietrich Enns 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Baltimore Orioles

+4.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles 60% Lean
"BAL -1.5 w/ 13.7% sharp edge + extreme whale home action ($1.6M vol) despite flat ML posterior"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.9%
Line Movement
Current BAL -1.5 -143 / HOU +1.5 +119 | Total 9.0 | ML BAL -143 / HOU +119
Movement No significant movement
Neutral EV on ML home, no edge over vig
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp 13.7% edge on BAL -1.5 with strong signal, confirmed by extreme $1.6M whale volume (84% home) despite Pinnacle fair value leaning away cover. Bayesian ML posterior flat at 58.9% but injuries net slight HOU edge (-1.8%). No pitchers or weather caps totals to lean over on 52% fair value; degraded data demands low units.
SHARP MONEY
13.7% sharp edge on spread home, strong signal despite Pinnacle fair value divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Baltimore Orioles -1.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Baltimore Orioles None
+0.1 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+1.2 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Baltimore Orioles -143
  • Bayesian posterior matches market at 58.9% but confirmed by whales and PM consensus
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Baltimore Orioles -1.5
  • Sharp 13.7% divergence favoring BAL run line home vs retail
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 9.0
  • Pinnacle fair value over 52% in neutral total market
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Orioles +233 ML +61 EV (48.4% posterior vs 30% model line) + whales extreme; 75% MC under 24
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