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Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
Thunder
Cleveland Cavaliers
Cavaliers
Cleveland Cavaliers
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω DDN SI PICK
61% Lean
61% Lean
SPREAD
Cleveland Cavaliers Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
"Thunder down 5 rotation pieces vs a nearly whole Cavs roster — fair line ~-6, market says -3.5, so Cavs -3.5 at -122 is the play (EV +1.6)"
EV / $100
+1.6
Win Prob
64%
Edge
+3.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers None
63%
TOTAL over 227.5
57%
Full DDN SI Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.3% divergence on spread with moderate signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$351414 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 154 trades Largest: $55134

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Oklahoma City Thunder

Cleveland Cavaliers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -180 / 155 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -176 / 154 -
Value Line - -175 / 143 -
Sharp Action Best Line -4.0 (-115) - -
Market Consensus -4.0 (-110) ↓ - -
Value Line -3.5 (-117) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 228.0 (-110)
Market Consensus - - Over 227.5 (-114)
Value Line - - Over 228.5 (-114)
De-Vigged Fair Value -104 / 104 -166 / 166 O/U -106 / 106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Oklahoma City Thunder

T
Thomas Sorber
(C) out — Oklahoma City exercised the third-year team option on Sorber (knee) on Sunday, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Out
C
Cason Wallace
(G) out — Wallace underwent surgery Friday to repair a torn labrum in his left shoulder and will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Out
C
Chet Holmgren
(C) out — Holmgren underwent a biological treatment Friday to address a small patellar tendon tear and will miss at least 8-10 weeks, Nick Crain of Slam reports.
Out
J
Jalen Williams
(G) out — Williams (leg) underwent successful surgery Wednesday to "address a fractured left fibula and reconstruction of ankle ligaments following a fracture and dislocation." He will be re-evaluated before the end of the regular season, Tim MacMahon of ESPN.com reports.
Out
A
Alex Caruso
(G) out — Caruso (ankle) is expected to miss time due to an ankle sprain, Clemente Almanza of USA Today reports.
Out
N
Nikola Topic
(G) out — Topic (back) will remain on the inactive list for Wednesday's game in Dallas.
Out

Cleveland Cavaliers

P
Peyton Watson
(G) day-to-day — Watson (hamstring) is questionable to play in Monday's game against Oklahoma City.
Day-To-Day
J
Jaylon Tyson
(G) out — Tyson (ankle) has been ruled out for Monday's game against Oklahoma City.
Out
Game Preview
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers
until tip-off
Current Line
Spread -4.0 (-115)
Total Over 228.0
Key Injuries
Thomas Sorber Out
Cason Wallace Out
Peyton Watson Day-To-Day
Jaylon Tyson Out
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Spread: Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5 (-122) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T23:48:55.226678 UTC

OKC is missing five rotation players including Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Caruso, a depth loss our model rates at roughly -8 to -10 points of team strength versus a standard Thunder roster, more than the full 3.5-point spread.

Moneyline: Cleveland Cavaliers (-175) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T21:52:04.602219 UTC

Thunder's five Out entries (Holmgren, Williams, Caruso, Wallace, Sorber) gut the rotation, tilting win probability toward Cleveland, but at -175 the breakeven is 63.6% and our 63.5% estimate is right on it — no bet, priced to win.

Player Prop: over (-110) PENDING · Recorded 2026-11-01T21:52:04.676728 UTC

Weighted FGA projection mirrors 30-31 range; with no Holmgren or Jalen Williams to absorb shot volume, SGA taker usage climbs from 32% toward 37-38%

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

Oklahoma City Thunder @ Cleveland Cavaliers

+1.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Cleveland Cavaliers 61% Lean
"Thunder down 5 rotation pieces vs a nearly whole Cavs roster — fair line ~-6, market says -3.5, so Cavs -3.5 at -122 is the play (EV +1.6)"
64% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 64%
Book Implied 60%
Edge +3.7%
Line Movement
Current Cavaliers -3.5 (price -122 home / -104 away), total 227.5
Movement unknown — no opening line supplied
OKC missing 5 rotation pieces: Chet Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Alex Caruso, Cason Wallace, Thomas Sorber all listed Out Cleveland nearly whole — only Jaylon Tyson (Out) and Peyton Watson (Day-To-Day) affect the back of the rotation No rest/travel/altitude flags detected Venue listed TBD — unverified home-court assumption for Cleveland
At -175 the Cavaliers ML needs 63.6% just to break even; our 63.5% estimate is breakeven-to-slightly-negative, so the straight moneyline is a pass. The value sits in the spread side price rather than the juice.
FULL ANALYSIS
The injury asymmetry is the whole story: OKC lists five rotation players Out (Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Caruso, Wallace, Sorber) while Cleveland is nearly whole, and that's a bigger swing than the market's 3.5 points — our independent read puts the fair line near Cavs -6 to -7. At -175 ML (63.6% breakeven) there's no edge to collect, but Cavs -3.5 at -122 still catches the market before full repricing. Total lanes at 227.5 over are playable only at LEAN tier given zero pace data and our 48.7% historical totals WR.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
+1.6 EV 61% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cleveland Cavaliers None
-0.9 EV 63%
TOTAL over 227.5
+2.6 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 63%
Cleveland Cavaliers -175
  • Thunder's five Out entries (Holmgren, Williams, Caruso, Wallace, Sorber) gut the rotation, tilting win probability toward Cleveland, but at -175 the breakeven is 63.6% and our 63.5% estimate is right on it — no bet, priced to win
SPREAD PICK
○ 61%
Cleveland Cavaliers -3.5
  • OKC is missing five rotation players including Holmgren, Jalen Williams and Caruso, a depth loss our model rates at roughly -8 to -10 points of team strength versus a standard Thunder roster, more than the full 3.5-point spread
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
OVER 227.5
  • OKC's depleted second unit weakens halfcourt defense and creates pace-up variance; combined with a nearly full-strength Cavs first unit whose projected starters out-score the Thunder's replacement-grade Niangs/Minix/Enaruna depth, the fair total reads a half-point-plus over 227.5
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Model projects Cavs -4.5 home vs an OKC rotation missing 5 players, with the SGA minutes/points prop the sharpest value play if a book posts.
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