Moneyline: Vegas Golden Knights (-170)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T06:59:39.973854 UTC
Negative EV — market has priced in the injury advantage. No value.
NHL
Toronto Maple Leafs
Leafs
Vegas Golden Knights
Knights
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 2.6% divergence on total with moderate signal. RLM detected on total.
Sharp: over
Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$21175 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away
Polymarket: 18 trades
Largest: $3666
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAToronto Maple Leafs
Vegas Golden Knights
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | -175 / 150 ↑ | - |
| Market Consensus | - | -171 / 150 | - |
| Value Line | - | -162 / 135 | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | -1.5 (150) | - | - |
| Market Consensus | -1.5 (149) ↓ | - | - |
| Value Line | -1.5 (155) ↓ | - | - |
| Sharp Action Best Line | - | - | Over 6.0 (-120) |
| Market Consensus | - | - | Over 6.0 (-118) |
| Value Line | - | - | Over 6.5 (106) |
| De-Vigged Fair Value | 162 / -162 | -161 / 161 | O/U -110 / 110 |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Toronto Maple Leafs
D
Dakota Joshua
M
Max Domi
C
Cade Webber
E
Elvis Merzlikins
W
William Villeneuve
Vegas Golden Knights
R
Raphael Lavoie
V
Victor Olofsson
L
Lukas Cormier
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Recorded picks and reasons
These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.
Spread: Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5 (-180)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T16:41:36.692977 UTC
calibrated shows AWAY cover at 60.9% vs market 39.2% — a +0.1pp edge. The +1.5 spread is the only side with positive edge, albeit tiny.
Player Prop: over (-110)
PENDING · Recorded 2026-10-07T06:59:40.021309 UTC
Top-line center avg 3.8 vs 3.5 with home scoring expectation 3.9 boosts volume
Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Toronto Maple Leafs @ Vegas Golden Knights
+-3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Vegas Golden Knights
55%
Lean
"Sharp money on over with +8.1% EV at +106 — the only clear edge in a game where injuries are already priced into the side markets."
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
61%
Book Implied
63%
Edge
-2.0%
Line Movement
Open
Vegas -170 / Total 6.5
Current
Vegas -170 / Total 6.5
Movement
No significant movement detected
Away team more affected by injuries (-25.0% vs -12.6%)
Sharp money on over (2.6% edge, RLM detected)
Whale volume moderate on AWAY side ($21K)
Negative EV on the moneyline — the market has priced in the injury advantage for Vegas, but our model sees the Leafs' talent gap as overstated. No value on either side of the moneyline.
FULL ANALYSIS
The only clear edge in this game is on the total over at +106. Sharp money is on over with 2.6% divergence and RLM detected, and the +EV analysis shows +8.1% EV vs Pinnacle fair value. The moneyline and spread markets offer no value — the injury impact is already priced in, and whale volume on the away side is split at 51% confidence. Take the over at +106 before the line moves.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on the moneyline is only 0.4% — negligible. The only moderate sharp signal is on the total over, with 2.6% divergence and RLM. Whale volume is moderate on the away side, but whale confidence is only 51% (split). Overall, no strong directional signal.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
55%
Vegas Golden Knights -170
- Negative EV — market has priced in the injury advantage
- No value
SPREAD PICK
○
60%
Toronto Maple Leafs 1.5
- calibrated shows AWAY cover at 60.9% vs market 39.2% — a +0.1pp edge
- The +1.5 spread is the only side with positive edge, albeit tiny
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
63%
OVER 6.5
- +EV analysis shows +8.1% EV on over at +106 (Market Consensus fair value 52.5%)
- Sharp money is on over with 2.6% divergence and RLM detected
- This is the only market with a clear edge
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Vegas -1.5 model projects 3.9-2.2 with +7.9pp Bayesian edge and 51.8% MC cover
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