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Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +3.0% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 1.5
"Astros ML +9.3pp Bayesian edge + sharp away vs whale home steam, over 8.5 +15pp posterior"
EV / $100
+4.5
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-2.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
47%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 4.7% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$855478 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (87% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 361 trades Kalshi: 75 trades Largest: $78000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +163.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
34.3%
ML
191 / -191

Player Props Engine

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Houston Astros

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -159 / 133 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -131 / 121 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (152) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 162 / -162 -126 / 126 O/U 104 / -104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

C
Christian Walker
(1B) day-to-day — Walker (head) told reporters after Saturday's 6-3 win over the Red Sox that he passed concussion tests and plans to play in Sunday's series finale, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Imai (arm) will make his next rehab appearance Tuesday or Wednesday with Triple-A Sugar Land, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weiss
(RP) Paternity — Weiss appears in line to move to the Houston bullpen after Kai-Wei Teng was named the team's starter for Tuesday's game in Baltimore, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
paternity
J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) began taking at-bats in live batting practice Tuesday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 15-day IL — Brown (shoulder) began a throwing program Tuesday, playing catching from 75 feet, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — Manager Joe Espada stated after Monday's game against the Guardians that Trammell (groin) will "be out for a little bit," Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said that Loperfido (quadriceps) will do some baseball activities Monday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nick Allen
(SS) 10-day IL — Allen was scratched from Saturday's lineup due to back spasms, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Javier (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Dezenzo (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Corpus Christi on Friday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — Meyers was removed from Wednesday's game versus the Rockies in the second inning due to lower-back tightness, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Blanco (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL

Boston Red Sox

S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Gray (hamstring) threw a live batting practice session Friday, Tim Crowley of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet underwent an MRI on his left shoulder that came back clean Friday, and he'll be shut down from throwing for a few days while he focuses on rebuilding strength, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Double-A Portland on Sunday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Sandoval (biceps) underwent additional testing after being pulled from a rehab assignment, and the imaging revealed nothing alarming, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (152)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Christian Walker Day-To-Day
Josh Hader 60-Day-IL
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
Garrett Crochet 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Boston Red Sox

+4.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 60% Lean
"Astros ML +9.3pp Bayesian edge + sharp away vs whale home steam, over 8.5 +15pp posterior"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.7%
Line Movement
Current BOS ML -163 / HOU +135, RL BOS -1.5 (est), Total 8.5
Movement No significant movement
+9.3pp edge on HOU ML at +135 (breakeven 42.6%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion gives Astros 47.3% win prob vs 38% implied (+9.3pp, 11.2 EV/100 at +135), backed by sharp 4.7% away edge and MC 49.1% away wins at pick'em. Total posterior 65.2% over 8.5 (MC 19.6 projected) but cap confidence on historical totals 48.7% WR and losing tiers. Whales $855k extreme BOS but contradict sharps/Pinnacle +EV away; injuries net even.
SHARP MONEY
4.7% sharp edge on away ML, strong signal despite whale home action
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 1.5
+4.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+11.2 EV 47% 0u
TOTAL over 8.5
+14.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 47%
Houston Astros 135
  • Bayesian posterior 47.3% vs market 38.0%, +9.3pp edge
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Houston Astros 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market BOS favoritism, MC away cover 49.1% at even
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied, MC projects 19.6 total
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox -2.2: 14.5% sharp spread edge + extreme whales $302k despite no pitchers, +3.2 EV
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