Home › Serie A › Fiorentina @ Hellas Verona
Serie A
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
Hellas Verona
Verona
Hellas Verona
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
64% Sharp Lean
64% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Fiorentina Fiorentina -0.5
"Fiorentina ML -100 (58% model vs 50% breakeven); Verona's 3-9-18 home record overpriced at +285"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
58%
Edge
+8.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Fiorentina None
66%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Fiorentina

Hellas Verona

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
HEL -100 / FIO -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Fiorentina @ Hellas Verona
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Fiorentina @ Hellas Verona

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Fiorentina 64% Sharp Lean
"Fiorentina ML -100 (58% model vs 50% breakeven); Verona's 3-9-18 home record overpriced at +285"
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.0%
Line Movement
Open No open line available
Current Fiorentina -0.5 (-135) / Hellas Verona +0.5 (-105); ML Verona +285 / Fiorentina -100; Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
+EV on Fiorentina ML at -100; breakeven 50% vs our 58% model prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Fiorentina's 6-11-13 away > Verona's 3-9-18 home despite ML -100; model xG 1.6-1.1 projects FIO -0.5 cover 58% vs 52.4% implied. Low leaders (Kean/Orban <0.35 G/90) + bottom-table pace = 2.7 total under 2.5. Soccer N=0 caps confidence but record gap + ML value converges.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Fiorentina -0.5
+3.2 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE Fiorentina None
+4.6 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Fiorentina -115
  • 60% model prob vs 53.5% implied; Verona's 3 wins in 30 matches = massive regression risk
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Fiorentina -0.5
  • Fiorentina's 6-11-13 record dominates Verona's 3-9-18 bottom-feeder form; model projects 1.6-1.1 expected goals
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Combined poor scoring (Kean 8G/25M, Orban 7G/25M) projects 2.7 total; Verona 3-9-18 screams defensive lockup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
FIO ML -115 (+5.65 EV): 60% model vs 53.5% implied; Verona 3-9-18 = auto-regression
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