MLS
D.C. United
United
Nashville SC
SC
Whale Activity Detected
$158393 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (89% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 83 trades
Largest: $20235
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
43.4%
ML
130 / -130
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAD.C. United
Nashville SC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
2.0
Moneyline
NAS -133
/
D.C 133
Win Probability
57%
-
43%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
D.C. United @ Nashville SC
+-3.4 EV
per $100 wagered
D.C. United
41%
Lean
"DCU +450 ML +126 EV bomb (omega -130/41% posterior vs mkt) but whales fade; over 2.5 +24 EV (omega 7.5 total)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
41%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-8.9%
Line Movement
Current
NSH -0.5 (-185)/DCU +0.5 (+135); Total 2.5; ML NSH -180/DCU +450
Movement
No significant movement
Massive +EV on DCU ML +450 (41.1% our vs 18.2% raw implied); DNB spread EV negative due to shorter +135 odds
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega line has DCU as -130 ML faves (43.4% home win) vs market +450 offering +126 EV at 41.1% posterior, but extreme whales ($149k) on NSH cap upside. Total over 2.5 screams value at +14.9pp edge (64.9% posterior) with omega 7.5/Dixon 12.8 exp goals vs tiny 2.5 market amid VERY_LOW model agreement. Degraded data (55%) and N=0 MLS force pass on ML/spread despite edges.
SHARP MONEY
Extreme whale volume $149k from 14 profitable wallets at 94% confidence on home ML
Recommended Sizing
0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
41%
D.C. United 450
- Bayesian posterior 41.1% vs de-vigged market 35.7% (+5.4pp edge); omega ML away -130 vs market +450
SPREAD PICK
○
41%
D.C. United 0.5
- Posterior translates to 41.1% cover prob vs de-vigged ~39.6% but vigged breakeven 42.6% yields -EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
60%
OVER 2.5
- Over posterior 64.9% vs market 50% (+14.9pp edge); omega total 7.5 vs market 2.5 (5pt edge)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
DCU +475 ML +6.2pp Bayesian edge (40% vs 34% mkt); Over 2.5 +14.9pp (65% posterior) despite whale steam home
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