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MLB
Athletics
Athletics
Athletics
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +46.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
"Phils ML 59% w/ extreme whales + sharp spread EV; over 9.0 62% posterior projects 20 runs vs market total"
EV / $100
+46.8
Win Prob
59%
Edge
+8.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
59%
TOTAL over 9.0
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 13.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1439723 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (84% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 362 trades Kalshi: 92 trades Largest: $39285
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +136.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
42.4%
ML
136 / -136

Player Props Engine

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Athletics

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -136 / 110 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (285) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (151) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (-111)
De-Vigged Fair Value 162 / -162 -127 / 127 O/U -104 / 104
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Athletics

M
Max Muncy
(3B) 10-day IL — Muncy (hand) has yet to resume baseball activities, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Gunnar Hoglund
(SP) 60-day IL — Hoglund (knee/back) was given a cortisone injection in his left hip May 1, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Denzel Clarke
(CF) 10-day IL — Clarke (foot) has begun a running and hitting progression, Martin Gallegos of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
S
Shea Langeliers
(C) Paternity — Langeliers was placed on the paternity list Monday.
Paternity

Philadelphia Phillies

C
Christian McGowan
(RP) day-to-day — McGowan will miss the remainder of the season following Tommy John surgery, Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rene Pinto
(C) day-to-day — The Phillies signed Pinto to a minor-league contract Jan. 6.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Lazar
(RP) 60-day IL — Lazar (oblique) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Jersey Shore on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus allowed one run on two hits across one inning of work as an opener Wednesday against the Cubs. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Pop
(RP) 15-day IL — Pop is slated to serve as the Phillies' opening pitcher in Sunday's game against the Diamondbacks, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Keaton Anthony
(1B) day-to-day — Anthony suffered a fractured toe after fouling a ball off his foot during Monday's Grapefruit League game versus the Red Sox, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — Bechtold signed a minor-league contract with the Blue Jays on Dec. 1.
Day-To-Day
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) Suspension — MLB announced Monday that Rojas has been suspended 80 games for violating the league's policy against performance-enhancing drugs, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
suspension
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (285)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Max Muncy 10-Day-IL
Gunnar Hoglund 60-Day-IL
Christian McGowan Day-To-Day
Rene Pinto Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Athletics @ Philadelphia Phillies

+46.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Philadelphia Phillies 60% Lean
"Phils ML 59% w/ extreme whales + sharp spread EV; over 9.0 62% posterior projects 20 runs vs market total"
59% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 59%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +8.7%
Line Movement
Current Phillies -136 ML / +113 Athletics ML, Run Line Phillies -1.5 est -136, Total 9.0
Movement No significant movement detected
Slight +EV on Phillies ML; massive +24.4 EV on over 9.0
FULL ANALYSIS
Posterior fuses to 58.7% Phillies ML (+1.1pp edge) with extreme $1.4M whales (84% home) and strong sharp spread support (13.9% edge, +46.8 EV). Total 9.0 crushed by 65.2% over prob as Omega/MC project 20+ runs (10.2-9.8 avg, 72% under 22.5 irrelevant). Injuries hit PHI harder (-9.7% vs -5.5%) but model nets away edge minimal; low agreement caps conf.
SHARP MONEY
13.9% sharp edge on Phillies spread (+46.8% EV vs Bovada), weak 0.9% on ML away but overall home lean
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
+46.8 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Philadelphia Phillies None
+1.9 EV 59% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+24.4 EV 62% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 59%
Philadelphia Phillies -136
  • Bayesian posterior 58.7% vs 57.6% implied (+1.1pp edge fused from ELO/Poisson)
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Philadelphia Phillies -1.5
  • +46.8% EV on Phillies -1.5 per Pinnacle de-vigged fair value (38.1% cover prob vs retail pricing)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 9.0
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% implied (+15.2pp), Omega/MC project 20-22 runs (10.2-9.8 MC avg)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Phillies -2.2: 15.5% sharp edge + $667k extreme whales despite injuries & PM fade
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