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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Coors 20-run proj vs 10.5 total (+15.2pp over edge, +24 EV); whales steam home ML vs Mets juice"
EV / $100
+5.1
Win Prob
47%
Edge
-3.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
55%
TOTAL over 10.5
62%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$276737 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 70 trades Kalshi: 411 trades Largest: $26272
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +149.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.0
Win Prob
37.8%
ML
164 / -164

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 125 / -149 ↑ -
Value Line - 123 / -152 -
Sharp Action - - Over 1.5 (120)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

R
Ronny Mauricio
(SS) 10-day IL — Mauricio suffered a fractured left thumb in Saturday's loss to the Angels and will be placed on the 10-day injured list, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — The Mets signed Rojas to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Burdi
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets reassigned Burdi to minor-league camp Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber (finger) struck out two and allowed two hits over a scoreless inning during his rehab appearance Tuesday at Triple-A Syracuse.
15-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns said last Friday that Polanco (wrist/Achilles) has resumed performing baseball activities but is considered week-to-week in his recovery from a pair of injuries, SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 10-day IL — The Mets are expected to place Robert (back) on the 10-day injured list, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL

Colorado Rockies

R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — Feltner (elbow) has resumed throwing and is expected to schedule a bullpen session in the coming days, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Total Over 1.5
Key Injuries
Ronny Mauricio 10-Day-IL
Jose Rojas Day-To-Day
Ryan Feltner 15-Day-IL
Jeff Criswell 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Colorado Rockies

+5.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 62% Lean
"Coors 20-run proj vs 10.5 total (+15.2pp over edge, +24 EV); whales steam home ML vs Mets juice"
47% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 47%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.2%
Line Movement
Current Mets -1.5 -149 / Rockies +1.5 +125 (est) | ML Mets -149 / Rockies +123 | Total 10.5 -110
Movement No significant movement
Coors Field altitude +35% over bias Equal injury impact -9% both sides No pitchers/rest flags
+EV on Rockies ML (+4.4%) and massive +24.4% on over 10.5; spread marginal at est +1.5
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega/MC project 20-run Coors bloodbath (11.2-11.2 exp scores) vs 10.5 total for +15pp over edge; market wrongly juices Mets -149 despite even model spread and home whales $276k extreme. Injuries net neutral -9% both, no pitchers limits ML conviction to lean but +1.9pp Bayesian home value at +123. MC std dev 4.6 favors Rockies +1.5 cover ~64%.
SHARP MONEY
EXTREME whale volume $276k (28 wallets, 70% conf) on Rockies; aligns with Omega even line vs Mets juice
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+5.1 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Colorado Rockies None
+4.4 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 10.5
+24.4 EV 62% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Rockies 123
  • Bayesian posterior 46.8% vs market 44.8% breakeven (+2pp edge); whales confirm home value
SPREAD PICK
○ 62%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 + MC home cover +1.5 ~64% vs market implying 59%; Coors variance favors dog
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 62%
OVER 10.5
  • Posterior over 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) with MC proj 19.7 total, Omega 22.5; Coors +35% over bias
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Rockies ML +145: +7.2% Bayesian edge + extreme $114k whales, +15.6 EV; MC under 22.5 75.7%
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