Home › MLB › St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
MLB
St. Louis Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.9% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals None
"Nats spread +270 has +48.6% EV from 18.4% sharp divergence vs juiced STL -126 ML (fair away prob 40.2%)"
EV / $100
+48.6
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.7%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
55%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +126.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
36.1%
ML
177 / -177

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

St. Louis Cardinals

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 102 / -122 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 106 / -117 -
Value Line - 104 / -129 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-390) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-157) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value -149 / 149 112 / -112 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

St. Louis Cardinals

M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Pushard (knee) will be shut down for 4-to-5 days before resuming a throwing program, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Dobbins
(SP) 15-day IL — Dobbins (knee) will begin a rehab assignment Tuesday at Triple-A Memphis, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals president of baseball operations Chaim Bloom said Monday that Nootbaar (heels) will be evaluated this week for potential placement on the 60-day injured list, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day

Washington Nationals

J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals optioned Gray to Triple-A Rochester on Thursday.
60-Day-IL
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Game Preview
St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-390)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Hunter Dobbins 15-Day-IL
Josiah Gray 60-Day-IL
DJ Herz 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

St. Louis Cardinals @ Washington Nationals

+48.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 60% Lean
"Nats spread +270 has +48.6% EV from 18.4% sharp divergence vs juiced STL -126 ML (fair away prob 40.2%)"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.7%
Line Movement
Current STL -126 ML / Total 8.5
Movement No movement data
No positive EV on ML; sharp +EV on away spread (+48.6% at Bovada +270) but MC shows no edge
Model: 52.3% win rate | n=352 — MLB 52.3% (N=352); recent 7d +3.93u; vs Nats 9-12L, vs STL 13-12; player props losing lean tier
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money screams value on Nats spread (+270 Bovada) with 18.4% divergence vs retail juice despite MC even matchup (46.3% home cover). Omega spread 0.0 massively underrates Nats vs -126 ML market. Recent H2H model struggling vs Nats (2-3) but tier data shows lean ML profitable; pass totals with losing sharp tier record.
SHARP MONEY
18.4% sharp edge on spread favoring away (Nationals) vs retail juice; strong signal despite MC neutrality
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals None
+48.6 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
-4.1 EV 55%
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.8 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Washington Nationals 181
  • Model win prob 46.7% vs +181 implied 35.6% = 11.1% edge; MC confirms 46.7% away win
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Washington Nationals 0.0
  • Monte Carlo shows 46.7% Cardinals cover 0.0 but MC away cover 46.7% + 7.7% push = 54.4% non-loss vs -110
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 54%
UNDER 24.0
  • MC simulation shows 47.6% under 24.0 vs 44.4% over despite 8% push
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Nationals ML +181 (11% edge vs 46.7% model win prob) in pick'em matchup; fade juiced Cardinals -181
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700