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Chicago White Sox
Chicago White Sox
Sox
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers
"Brewers ML -186 +4.6 EV (68% model vs 65% implied); Sox IL decimates staff vs MIL depth"
EV / $100
+4.6
Win Prob
68%
Edge
+18.0%
Size
1u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
65%
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
66%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Chicago White Sox

Milwaukee Brewers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - -186 / 166 ↑ -
Pinnacle -1.5 (116) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 8.0 (101)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Chicago White Sox

P
Prelander Berroa
(RP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Berroa (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
K
Kyle Teel
(C) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Teel (hamstring) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Brooks Baldwin
(LF) 10-day IL — The White Sox placed Baldwin (elbow) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
M
Mike Vasil
(RP) 15-day IL — Vasil (elbow) will undergo season-ending Tommy John surgery in the coming weeks, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Drew Thorpe
(SP) 15-day IL — The White Sox placed Thorpe (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tim Elko
(1B) out — Elko (knee) agreed to a minor-league contract with the White Sox on Sunday, Jack Ankony of SI.com reports.
Out
K
Ky Bush
(SP) out — The White Sox placed Bush (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
Out
M
Mason Adams
(RP) out — The White Sox announced that Adams underwent successful Tommy John surgery Wednesday, Scott Merkin of MLB.com reports.
Out

Milwaukee Brewers

R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Zastryzny (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Monday that the team hopes Priester (wrist) is ready for his season debut by early May, Jack Stern of BrewerFanatic.com reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Steward Berroa
(RF) 10-day IL — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Saturday that Berroa is dealing with a sore shoulder, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Craig Yoho
(RP) 15-day IL — The Brewers placed Yoho (calf) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Eduardo Garcia
(OF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
T
Thomas Pannone
(RP) day-to-day — Pannone was diagnosed with a torn flexor tendon in his left forearm Saturday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) out — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Out
Game Preview
Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (116)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Prelander Berroa 15-Day-IL
Kyle Teel 10-Day-IL
Rob Zastryzny 15-Day-IL
Quinn Priester 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Chicago White Sox @ Milwaukee Brewers

+4.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 68% Strong
"Brewers ML -186 +4.6 EV (68% model vs 65% implied); Sox IL decimates staff vs MIL depth"
68% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 68%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +18.0%
Line Movement
Current MIL -186 / CHW +153 | Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
+4.6 EV on MIL ML at -186
Model: 60.0% win rate | n=10 — Based on N=10 graded MLB outcomes; 1-0 vs both teams
FULL ANALYSIS
Brewers -186 ML has +4.6 EV with model at 68% win prob vs market 65%—Sox roster gutted by IL (Thorpe/Berroa out). Total projects 7.4 runs under 8 amid pitcher injuries both sides and April chill. CLV edge on MIL favorite as line holds firm.
SHARP MONEY
MIL heavy favorite with no reverse line movement; respects market favorite
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers
+4.6 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers -1.5
+2.8 EV 65% 0.5u
TOTAL Under 8.0 8.0
+3.2 EV 66% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Milwaukee Brewers -194
  • Brewers superior rotation depth + White Sox multiple arms OUT projects 1.2 run edge in sims
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Chicago White Sox
  • Model Poisson sims show CHW within 1 run 58% vs MIL early lines, +EV on dog side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 68%
UNDER 8.0 8.0
  • March MLB avg total 7.2 (cold weather bias) + both teams 4+ pitching injuries = 0.8 run suppression
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 8.0 +2.8 EV: March MLB totals avg 7.2 + 9 pitching injuries suppress 0.8 runs
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