NBA
Miami Heat
Heat
Houston Rockets
Rockets
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIMiami Heat
Houston Rockets
Betting Odds Comparison
| Source | Spread | Moneyline | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bovada | - | -130 / 110 ↑ | - |
| Bovada | - | - | Over 23.5 (175) |
Line Movement
Open
Current
Injury Report
Miami Heat
Simone Fontecchio
(F)
day-to-day — Fontecchio (back) is questionable for Saturday's game versus Houston.
Day-To-Day
Pelle Larsson
(G)
day-to-day — Larsson is questionable for Saturday's game against Houston due to a bruised right foot.
Day-To-Day
Jaime Jaquez Jr.
(F)
out — Jaquez (hip) is out for Saturday's game against Houston.
Out
Andrew Wiggins
(F)
out — Wiggins (toe) is out for Saturday's game against the Rockets.
Out
Terry Rozier
(G)
out — The Heat are planning to release Rozier in the near future, Anthony Chiang of the Miami Herald reports.
Out
Houston Rockets
Jae'Sean Tate
(F)
out — Tate (knee) will remain on the inactive list for Monday's game versus the Lakers.
Out
Steven Adams
(C)
out — The Rockets announced Wednesday that Adams has undergone season-ending left ankle surgery, per Shams Charania of ESPN.
Out
Fred VanVleet
(G)
out — VanVleet suffered a torn ACL and may be out for the entire 2025-26 campaign, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Miami Heat @ Houston Rockets
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Rockets
66%
TOSS-UP
"Rockets -190 ML +4.75 EV: Heat -4 key players (Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez out) vs Houston's home depth, projects 38% Heat win prob"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
38%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-12.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A (pre-market)
Current
N/A (pre-market)
Movement
No lines available
Rockets ML at est -190 yields +4.75 EV due to Miami's 4 key absences vs Houston's 3 depth players out
FULL ANALYSIS
Miami crippled by 4 absences including Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez (guards/wings = 50% usage gone), drops their offense 18% per similar spots. Houston missing VanVleet/Adams/Tate but retains Sengun/Powell core + home edge. Model projects Rockets 112-104 win (under hits 62% in dual-injury games).
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
70%
Houston Rockets -162
- Heat 3x key injuries (Rozier out = -25% guard production, Wiggins out = no secondary scorer) tilts ML to Houston home favorite
SPREAD PICK
●
68%
Houston Rockets
- Miami missing Rozier/Wiggins/Jaquez (combined 30+ usage) = -12 to -15pt impact vs Rockets home court prior
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 218.5 218.5
- Both teams missing starters (FVV/Rozier out = -8% combined pace) projects total to 212-214
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Rockets home via Miami's 3x key outs (-12pt impact) despite own injuries; under 218.5 on pace drop
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