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MLB
New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Chicago Cubs
Cubs
Chicago Cubs
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
58% Lean
58% Lean
SPREAD
New York Mets New York Mets 1.5
"Mets ML +122: sharp 2.3% + PM -6.3% divergence vs juiced Cubs -140 (+2.1 EV)"
EV / $100
+1.8
Win Prob
54%
Edge
+4.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
60%
TOTAL under 8.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 1.8% divergence on ML with moderate signal.
Sharp: away
Whale Activity Detected
$1651008 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (70% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 264 trades Kalshi: 1960 trades Largest: $114719

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Chicago Cubs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -112 / -108 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -107 / -104 -
Value Line - -118 / -106 -
De-Vigged Fair Value - -101 / 101 -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Juan Soto
(RF) 10-day IL — Soto (calf) continues to progress with his baseball activities and remains on track to return from the 10-day injured list next week, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(2B) day-to-day — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(LF) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets outrighted Waddell to Triple-A Syracuse on Friday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL

Chicago Cubs

D
Daniel Palencia
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cubs placed Palencia on the 15-day injured list Friday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
C
Cade Horton
(SP) 15-day IL — Horton (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery Thursday and is expected to be sidelined up to 16 months, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Matthew Boyd
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyd (biceps) will make a rehab start with Triple-A Iowa on Thursday, Tommy Birch of the Des Moines Register reports.
15-Day-IL
P
Porter Hodge
(RP) 15-day IL — Hodge is slated to undergo UCL surgery on his right elbow and will miss the rest of the 2026 season, Taylor McGregor of Marquee Sports Network reports.
15-Day-IL
E
Ethan Roberts
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cubs placed Roberts on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with an undisclosed injury.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Harvey
(RP) 15-day IL — Harvey (0-1) allowed three runs on two hits and a walk while retiring just two batters in relief to take the loss Friday against the Guardians.
15-Day-IL
J
Jaxon Wiggins
(SP) day-to-day — Wiggins is dealing with a sore arm at Triple-A Iowa, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Phil Maton
(RP) 15-day IL — Maton (0-1) allowed two runs on two hits while retiring two batters in relief to take the loss Tuesday against the Angels. He walked two and struck out one.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Birdsell
(RP) day-to-day — Birdsell (elbow) will miss the entire 2026 season, Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jeff Brigham
(RP) day-to-day — The Cubs signed Brigham to a minor-league contract Thursday that includes an invitation to spring training, Bruce Levine of 670TheScore.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Steele
(SP) 60-day IL — The Cubs placed Steele (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jordan Wicks
(RP) 15-day IL — The Cubs placed Wicks (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Austin
(1B) 60-day IL — Cubs manager Craig Counsell said that Austin underwent a patellar tendon debridement procedure on his right knee Tuesday and will be out for "months," Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trent Thornton
(RP) day-to-day — The Cubs signed Thornton (Achilles) to a contract Monday, Tread Athletics reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Shelby Miller
(RP) 60-day IL — Miller (elbow) was placed on the 60-day injured list by the Cubs on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Kevin Herget Day-To-Day
Juan Soto 10-Day-IL
Daniel Palencia 15-Day-IL
Cade Horton 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Chicago Cubs

+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
New York Mets 58% Lean Calibrated
"Mets ML +122: sharp 2.3% + PM -6.3% divergence vs juiced Cubs -140 (+2.1 EV)"
54% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 54%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +4.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: Cubs -140 / Mets +122; Spread/Total N/A
Movement No significant movement detected
No game-level EV; value on Mets ML due to sharp/PM divergence
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=552 — ML profitable in Strong tier; vs Cubs 19-14W, vs Mets poor 11-23W (N small)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money on Mets ML (2.3% edge) + strong PM divergence (-6.3%) vs retail Cubs -140 juice over Pinnacle fair 56.2%; whales extreme on home but sharp priority. Equal -9.7% injury lambda both sides, no pitchers/weather erodes edges. Model spread -1.2 favors Mets +1.5 at +1.8 EV; totals weak historically.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 2.3% to Mets ML + RLM none; Pinnacle fair value implies retail overjuiced on Cubs
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+2.1 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL under 8.5
+1.2 EV 55%
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
New York Mets 122
  • Sharp 2.3% edge + PM -6.3% divergence to away vs retail -140 juice on Cubs
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
New York Mets 1.5
  • Model spread Cubs -1.2 vs retail implied -1.5 creates +1.8 EV on Mets +1.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 8.5
  • Model total 8.2 from Poisson anchor; totals historically losing (48.7% WR)
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cubs ML (-120 model): $893k EXTREME whale steam + Kalshi edge = +2.7 EV home win
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