MLS
LAFC
LAFC
St. Louis CITY SC
SC
Whale Activity Detected
$836202 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (98% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Polymarket: 106 trades
Kalshi: 2302 trades
Largest: $20580
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +5.0
Win Prob
41.4%
ML
142 / -142
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALAFC
St. Louis CITY SC
ELO Model Lines
MODELSpread
-0.8
Moneyline
ST. 113
/
LAF -113
Win Probability
47%
-
53%
ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
LAFC @ St. Louis CITY SC
+35.9 EV
per $100 wagered
LAFC
59%
Lean
"LAFC -0.5 +130 36 EV (59% posterior vs 43% implied); over 2.5 24 EV model 7.5 total"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
59%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+9.1%
Line Movement
Current
LAFC -0.5 (+130) / St. Louis CITY SC +0.5 (-185); ML LAFC -140 / St. Louis CITY SC +165; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Massive arb-like value on LAFC -0.5 +130 vs implied 43.5% (59.1% posterior); home ML +8.4 EV secondary
FULL ANALYSIS
LAFC -0.5 +130 at 59.1% posterior (MC 44.5% conservative) vs 43.5% implied delivers 36 EV on win equivalent to juiced ML -140. St. Louis +165 ML +8 EV with +3.1% Bayesian edge and extreme $777k whales but 41% prob limits to PASS. Over 2.5 crushes with 64.9% posterior, Omega 7.5/Dixon 6.4 total vs soft 2.5 line (23 EV) despite totals calibration weakness.
SHARP MONEY
EXTREME whale volume $776k from 18 profitable wallets, 99% conviction on home (institutional signal, +4-5 conf boost but contradicts quant away prob)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
41%
St. Louis CITY SC 165
- Bayesian fusion +3.1pp edge (40.9% posterior vs 37.7% market prior) on +165 underdog
SPREAD PICK
○
59%
LAFC -0.5
- Posterior 59.1% LAFC win covers -0.5 vs +130 implied 43.5% (identical to ML win, superior price)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
62%
OVER 2.5
- Posterior 64.9% over 2.5 vs 50% implied; Omega/MC total 7.5 (exp goals 3.8-apiece)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
St. Louis ML +142: 47.4% model >41.3% implied (+14.7 EV) + $505k extreme whales
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