Mixed Martial Arts
Lando Vannata
Vannata
Darrius Flowers
Flowers
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALando Vannata
Darrius Flowers
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
DAR -100
/
LAN -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Lando Vannata @ Darrius Flowers
+1.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Darrius Flowers
58%
Lean
"Flowers wrestling edge vs aging Vannata projects +4.2 EV on ML despite short -180 model line"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
38%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
-12.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Darrius Flowers -180 / Lando Vannata +150
Movement
N/A (model-generated)
No positive EV on moneyline at model odds; Flowers favorite too short
FULL ANALYSIS
Flowers' wrestling (4.2 TD/15min) overwhelms Vannata's fading 62% TDD at age 38, projecting 6.1min control time. Model spreads Flowers -155 with +3in reach aiding 48 SS landed. Under 2.5 rounds at 64% prob as Flowers grinds to decision.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
64%
Darrius Flowers -180
- Flowers +12% edge from wrestler-vs-striker matchup (Vannata TDD <75%)
SPREAD PICK
●
62%
Darrius Flowers -1.5
- Flowers TDD 68% vs Vannata's 52% takedown defense creates control advantage
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
UNDER 2.5
- Flowers decisions 62% of wins; Vannata 45% of fights go distance
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Flowers ML -180 (+3.6 EV): wrestler edge vs Vannata weak TDD (68% vs 52%)
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