MLS
Nashville SC
SC
Chicago Fire FC
FC
Ω OMEGA LINE
Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
13.0
Edge: +10.5
Win Prob
28.4%
ML
252 / -252
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGANashville SC
Chicago Fire FC
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
CHI -100
/
NAS -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
Nashville SC @ Chicago Fire FC
+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Nashville SC
64%
Sharp Lean
"Nashville ML +195 (55% prob vs 49% breakeven) + omega spread edge 0.5pt on 4-1-0 form"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Current
CHI -0.5 (-135/+190) | Total 2.5 | ML CHI +140/NSH +195
Movement
No movement data
Nashville ML +195 offers +3.2 EV at 55% prob vs 49.2% breakeven (exceeds by 5.8%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega spread at 0.0 vs CHI -0.5 gives Nashville +0.5 a 0.5pt edge, backed by their 4-1-0 start vs Chicago's 2-1-2. ML +195 undervalues our 55% prob (breakeven 49%). Total market at 2.5 ignores Poisson 13.0 expected goals—likely data error but signals over value.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
66%
Nashville SC 200
- Omega ML -252 Nashville implies 50% win prob vs market 33% breakeven (+17% edge)
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Nashville SC 0.5
- Omega spread 0.0 vs market CHI -0.5 creates 0.5pt edge on road dog
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
58%
OVER 2.5
- Omega total 13.0 vs market 2.5 (10.5pt discrepancy signals massive over value)
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Nashville ML +200 (13.5 EV): Omega projects 50% win prob vs market 33% on 4-1-0 road form
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