Mixed Martial Arts
Kyler Phillips
Phillips
Charles Jourdain
Jourdain
Whale Activity Detected
$54901 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home
Kalshi: 160 trades
Largest: $3320
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAKyler Phillips
Charles Jourdain
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
CHA -100
/
KYL -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Kyler Phillips @ Charles Jourdain
+8.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Charles Jourdain
57%
Lean
Raw
"Whales steam Charles Jourdain ML $55K STRONG volume vs 50% prior (+8.8 EV at -110)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
57%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+7.0%
Line Movement
Current
omega_model: Spread Charles Jourdain -0.5 (-110) / Kyler Phillips +0.5 (-110); ML Charles Jourdain -130 / Kyler Phillips +110; Total 2.5 (-110)
Movement
No market data
Whale signal creates edge vs neutral prior; +8.8 EV on home ML at -110 (breakeven 52.4%, our 57%).
FULL ANALYSIS
Neutral Bayesian fusion (50%) meets strong whale action ($54k volume, STRONG tier, 100% home) as sole Tier 2 signal in 21% data environment. Model fair ML -130 home yields +8.8 EV at -110 pricing with 57% prob (exceeds -110 breakeven 52.4% by 4.6%). Poor quality and N=0 cap at LEAN; ML preferred over totals (losing tier WR).
SHARP MONEY
STRONG whale volume tier ($54,901, 100% home consensus) equivalent to steam move despite 0 tracked profitable wallets.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
57%
Charles Jourdain -110
- Whale consensus 100% home ($54k STRONG volume) vs model prior 50/50 creates 7% prob edge
SPREAD PICK
○
57%
Charles Jourdain -0.5
- Strong whale volume ($54k, STRONG tier) on home diverges from 50% Bayesian prior
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
OVER 2.5
- UFC 3-rounders reach decision ~65% historically (N>1000); neutral model in low-data spot
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Phillips grappling edge vs Jourdain weak TDD, +4.4 EV ML -135 (60% model vs 57% implied)
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