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Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Washington Nationals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK ALIGNED
56% Lean
56% Lean
MONEYLINE
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals None
"Total 10 is 12.5 runs below Omega model: Bayesian 65.2% over with 28.4% EV—strongest line mispricing of the day."
EV / $100
+3.9
Win Prob
44%
Edge
-9.0%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
60%
TOTAL over 10.0
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$478971 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (76% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 111 trades Kalshi: 2 trades Largest: $150318
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: -1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +12.5
Win Prob
31.0%
ML
223 / -223

Player Props Engine

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Philadelphia Phillies

Washington Nationals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -115 / -105 ↑ -
Value Line - -114 / -109 -
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Philadelphia Phillies

K
Kyle Backhus
(RP) 15-day IL — Backhus (elbow) is expected to be activated from the 15-day injured list Monday, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — Garcia will undergo season-ending surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Bechtold
(3B) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller picked up the save Wednesday against the Athletics, allowing no runs on one hit and two walks in the ninth inning. He struck out one.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) out — Rojas (suspension) will miss the remainder of the season after suffering a right elbow UCL tear that will require an internal brace procedure.
Out
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day

Washington Nationals

D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Nationals manager Blake Butera said that Herz (elbow) won't make a rehab start Sunday with Single-A Fredericksburg as planned after experiencing forearm tightness following his most recent outing Tuesday, Spencer Nusbaum of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jacob Young
(CF) day-to-day — Young is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Rays due to right side discomfort.
Day-To-Day
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana threw from a mound this week for the first time since undergoing lat surgery last September, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — Waldichuk (elbow) underwent Tommy John surgery and an internal brace procedure April 21 and is hopeful to return to game action at some point early in the 2027 season, Mark Zuckerman of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) threw a simulated game at Nationals Park ahead of Tuesday's loss to the Marlins, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jake Irvin
(SP) 15-day IL — Nationals manager Blake Butera said Monday that Irvin (shoulder) remains shut down from throwing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Max Kranick
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Kranick (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) has resumed a throwing program, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tyler Baum
(DH) day-to-day — Baum has not pitched this year due an undisclosed injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals
until first pitch
Current Line
Key Injuries
Kyle Backhus 15-Day-IL
Adolis Garcia 60-Day-IL
DJ Herz 60-Day-IL
Jacob Young Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Philadelphia Phillies @ Washington Nationals

+3.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 56% Lean
"Total 10 is 12.5 runs below Omega model: Bayesian 65.2% over with 28.4% EV—strongest line mispricing of the day."
44% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 44%
Book Implied 54%
Edge -9.0%
Line Movement
Current Spread: 1.5, Total: 10.0, ML: Home -115 / Away -105
Movement No significant movement detected.
Injury impact nearly balanced (Home -8.7%, Away -10.6%) — slight advantage to Nats bullpen Missing starting pitcher data is a major unknown — reduces confidence on total by 4pts Whale signals: EXTREME volume tier ($478,971) on HOME (Nationals), 77% confident — institutional money siding with the Bayesian posterior direction
No edge on Washington Nationals moneyline; the calibrated shows significant negative edge. But the spread and total sides offer strong positive EV.
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive line discrepancy on the total: market says 10 runs, Omega Poisson projection says 22.5. Even accounting for pitcher uncertainty, the gap is unprecedented. Whales are betting big on Washington ($479K volume, 77%)—likely baked into their models too. Spread gives Nats +1.5 at a solid 53.9% cover rate with strong model agreement. Take the over as the top play (28.4% EV), hedge with Nationals +1.5. Moneyline is a weaker lean given unknown starting pitchers.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+3.9 EV 56% 0.5u
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+7.8 EV 60% 1u
TOTAL over 10.0
+28.4 EV 65% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
Washington Nationals -115
  • Whale volume of $479K at 77% conviction on Nats PLUS Bayesian edge of +9.0pp vs market—sharp money may be waiting to pounce on this line
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • Monte Carlo 95% CI [-10, +8] with margin -1.1 — Nats cover +1.5 at 53.9% vs
  • 50% implied, a clean +3.9pp edge with high model agreement
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 10.0
  • Bayesian fusion posterior 65.2% over vs 50% market implied = +15.2pp edge
  • Monte Carlo projects 22.5 total runs
  • The gap vs the hyped 10-run line is extreme
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Under 22.5 is the only high-conviction play: Monte Carlo shows 73.2% under probability, yielding +32.1 EV per $100 at -110.
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