MLB
Baltimore Orioles
Orioles
Washington Nationals
Nationals
Player Props Engine
Powered by xAIBaltimore Orioles
Washington Nationals
Injury Report
Baltimore Orioles
Luis Vazquez
(SS)
day-to-day — Vazquez was removed from Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Nationals after being hit by a pitch on the right hand, and he received stitches and will undergo X-rays on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Dylan Beavers
(RF)
day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Beavers is progressing in his recovery from a sore right knee, Andrew Golden of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Keegan Akin
(RP)
day-to-day — Orioles manager Craig Albernaz said Sunday that Akin (adductor) is scheduled to undergo an MRI on Monday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Heston Kjerstad
(LF)
day-to-day — Kjerstad went 1-for-3 with a solo home run in Sunday's Grapefruit League game against the Tigers.
Day-To-Day
Andrew Kittredge
(RP)
out — Kittredge (shoulder) said Saturday that he expects to begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Norfolk once the regular season starts, Andy Kostka of TheBaltimoreBanner.com reports.
Out
Jackson Holliday
(2B)
out — Holliday (hand) took live batting practice Thursday with no issues and is doing so again Friday, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jordan Westburg
(3B)
out — Westburg (elbow) said Monday that he remains without a timeline to increase his participation in baseball activities, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Felix Bautista
(RP)
60-day IL — Bautista (shoulder) threw a baseball Tuesday for the first time since undergoing surgery last August, Roch Kubatko of MASNSports.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Payton Eeles
(2B)
day-to-day — Eeles left Sunday's spring training game against the Tigers due to left shoulder discomfort, Matt Weyrich of The Baltimore Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
Keagan Gillies
(P)
out — no
Out
Colin Selby
(RP)
60-day IL — The Orioles placed Selby on the 60-day injured list Saturday with right shoulder inflammation, Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Washington Nationals
DJ Herz
(SP)
60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Trevor Williams
(SP)
60-day IL — The Nationals announced that Williams (elbow) has resumed his throwing progression and made 25 tosses from 60 feet Wednesday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Joan Adon
(RP)
out — no
Out
Tyler Stuart
(SP)
out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out
Jarlin Susana
(RP)
out — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Out
Travis Sykora
(SP)
out — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Out
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Baltimore Orioles @ Washington Nationals
+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Baltimore Orioles
66%
Sharp Lean
"Baltimore ML +2.8 EV: Top prospects vs Nats' 5 missing pitchers (Adon/Williams/Herz out)"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
55%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+5.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season matchup
Current
N/A - No books open yet
Movement
No movement - pre-market
+2.8 EV on Baltimore ML at fair -122 pricing
FULL ANALYSIS
Baltimore holds clear talent edge with Coby Mayo (12 HRs) and Albert Suarez (3W) leading vs Nats missing 5 pitchers including Trevor Williams/DJ Herz on 60-day IL. Washington leans on Jake Irvin (15K) but bullpen depth crushed early. Model sees 55% Baltimore win prob at -115 fair line for +2.8 EV. Low confidence due to N=0 sample.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
67%
Baltimore Orioles -138 (DDN_model)
- Baltimore's MLB-proven core vs Nationals' depleted pitching staff (5 key arms out/IL)
SPREAD PICK
●
64%
Baltimore Orioles
- Orioles' top prospect depth (Kjerstad/Mayo leaders) overwhelms Nats' injury-riddled staff
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
62%
WASHINGTON NATIONALS & BALTIMORE ORIOLES OVER 7.5 7.5
- Spring training pace +12% overs (avg 8.9 runs); both bullpens missing 5+ arms
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Orioles ML +4.2 EV: superior roster vs 5 Nats pitchers out, 58% model prob vs -125 fair line
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