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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies
Philadelphia Phillies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
"Pirates +1.5 shows +2.9 EV but sharp money on Phillies and data quality issues cap confidence at LEAN; avoid totals and moneylines."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
58%
Edge
-1.2%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.7% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1096536 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 386 trades Kalshi: 77 trades Largest: $62000
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
40.8%
ML
145 / -145

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Pittsburgh Pirates

Philadelphia Phillies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -143 / 115 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (310) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (156) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-105)
De-Vigged Fair Value 168 / -168 -127 / 127 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

J
Jared Jones
(SP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Horwitz
(1B) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Horwitz (hamstring) will remain sidelined for "weeks, not days," and the first baseman isn't expected to return from the 10-day injured list until after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that he expects Cruz (hand) to return from the 10-day injured list at some point in July, most likely after the All-Star break, Colin Beazley of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Wilber Dotel
(RP) 15-day IL — Dotel (lat) will begin a rehab assignment at Double-A Altoona on Saturday, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mitch Jebb
(LF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 60-day IL — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

Philadelphia Phillies

B
Brad Keller
(RP) 15-day IL — Keller (forearm) completed a live batting practice session Tuesday, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Rojas
(CF) 60-day IL — Rojas (suspension) underwent surgery Friday to repair the UCL in his right elbow and will face an expected recovery timeline of 6-to-8 months, Scott Lauber of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Adolis Garcia
(RF) 60-day IL — The Phillies announced that Garcia underwent successful surgery Wednesday to repair a torn right lat, Lochlahn March of The Philadelphia Inquirer reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Liover Peguero
(SS) day-to-day — The Phillies reassigned Peguero to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
A
Andrew Walling
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Carson DeMartini
(SS) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
D
Daniel Robert
(RP) day-to-day — Robert suffered a cardiac incident Sunday while preparing to throw a bullpen session and was taken to a local hospital, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mark Kolozsvary
(C) day-to-day — Kolozsvary (undisclosed) agreed to a minor-league contract with the Phillies on Friday that includes an invitation to spring training, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (310)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Jared Jones Day-To-Day
Spencer Horwitz 10-Day-IL
Brad Keller 15-Day-IL
Johan Rojas 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Philadelphia Phillies

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 60% Lean
"Pirates +1.5 shows +2.9 EV but sharp money on Phillies and data quality issues cap confidence at LEAN; avoid totals and moneylines."
58% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 58%
Book Implied 59%
Edge -1.2%
Line Movement
Current Spread: -1.5 (home), Total: 8.0, Moneyline: home -143 / away 119
Movement No significant movement detected
Negative EV on Phillies moneyline; no edge on either side.
FULL ANALYSIS
The only actionable edge is on Pirates +1.5, where the Bayesian posterior (53.9%) and Monte Carlo (50.6% away win) suggest slight value against the market. However, sharp money heavily favors the Phillies on the spread (14.7% edge), and data quality is degraded (68%). The total market is unreliable due to a massive OMEGA line discrepancy (22.5 vs market 8.0), making the over posterior suspect. Moneyline shows negative EV on both sides. Proceed with caution; the spread pick is a low-conviction lean at best.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 14.7% on spread to home, strong signal. Prediction markets align with sharp books. Whale volume extreme on home but confidence split.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
+2.9 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
-7.4 EV 55% 0u
TOTAL over 8.0
+24.5 EV 55% 0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Pittsburgh Pirates 119
  • No positive edge; posterior 42.3% vs de-vigged market 44.1%
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior shows 53.9% cover probability vs market 50%, yielding +2.9% EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior shows 65.2% over probability vs market 50%, but model inconsistency with Monte Carlo and OMEGA line reduces reliability
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Over 9.0 — Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on the total; Omega projects 22.5 runs but no pitchers confirmed, capping confidence at LEAN
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