Home › MLB › Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
MLB
Seattle Mariners
Seattle Mariners
Mariners
Los Angeles Angels
Angels
Los Angeles Angels
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Seattle Mariners Seattle Mariners -1.5
"Kirby 3.75 ERA edge + Angels IL arms = Mariners ML +3.8 EV at -168 (66% model)"
EV / $100
+3.2
Win Prob
66%
Edge
+16.0%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
66%
TOTAL under 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Seattle Mariners

Los Angeles Angels

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Market Consensus - 137 / -152 ↑ -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-123) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.0 (-107)
Fair Value PIN DE-VIG -116 / 116 143 / -143 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Seattle Mariners

C
Carlos Vargas
(RP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Vargas on the 15-day injured list Friday, retroactive to March 24, due to a right lat strain.
15-Day-IL
M
Miles Mastrobuoni
(3B) 10-day IL — The Mariners placed Mastrobuoni (calf) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Bryce Miller
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mariners placed Miller (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday with a left oblique strain.
15-Day-IL
B
Brennen Davis
(CF) day-to-day — Davis was removed from Satuday's Cactus League game against the Angels due to left hamstring tightness, Tim Booth of The Seattle Times reports.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Evans
(SP) 60-day IL — Evans underwent UCL reconstruction surgery with an internal brace Jan. 23 on his right elbow.
60-Day-IL

Los Angeles Angels

K
Kirby Yates
(RP) 15-day IL — Yates (knee) threw an abbreviated bullpen session Wednesday, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register reports.
15-Day-IL
V
Vaughn Grissom
(2B) 10-day IL — Grissom (wrist) went 1-for-3 with a single in his first rehab game with Triple-A Salt Lake on Tuesday.
10-Day-IL
B
Ben Joyce
(RP) 15-day IL — Joyce (shoulder) isn't yet tossing bullpens at full intensity, but he's doing well in his throwing program, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
G
Grayson Rodriguez
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodriguez (shoulder) has been playing catch and doing strengthening exercises but has yet to throw a bullpen session, per MLB.com.
15-Day-IL
R
Robert Stephenson
(RP) 60-day IL — The Angels placed Stephenson (shoulder) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Rendon
(3B) 60-day IL — The Angels placed Rendon (hip) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
A
Alek Manoah
(SP) 15-day IL — Manoah has recently been managing a fingernail issue, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-123)
Total Over 8.0
Key Injuries
Carlos Vargas 15-Day-IL
Miles Mastrobuoni 10-Day-IL
Kirby Yates 15-Day-IL
Vaughn Grissom 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Seattle Mariners @ Los Angeles Angels

+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Seattle Mariners 65% Sharp Lean
"Kirby 3.75 ERA edge + Angels IL arms = Mariners ML +3.8 EV at -168 (66% model)"
66% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 66%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +16.0%
Line Movement
Current SEA -168 ML / Angels +139 ML / Total 8.0
Movement No movement data
Breakeven 62.7% vs our 66%; +EV on Mariners ML despite juice. Angels ML -EV.
Model: 54.7% win rate | n=139 — ML profitable in strong tier (57.6%); favor ML, fade props/low tiers
FULL ANALYSIS
Kirby (3.75 ERA, 11 K/9) gives Mariners rotation edge over Angels' depleted staff (Manoah/Rodriguez IL); model sees 66% SEA win prob vs -168 juice for +3.8 EV. Total 8.0 leans under on early-season pitching dominance but totals losing model-wide. Angels injuries compound bullpen issues vs Mariners power (Raley 6 RBI).
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Seattle Mariners -1.5
+3.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Seattle Mariners None
+3.8 EV 66% 1u
TOTAL under 8.0
+1.2 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Seattle Mariners -246
  • Luis Castillo 0.00 ERA leader gives Mariners edge in probable matchup vs injured Angels staff (4 pitchers on IL)
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Seattle Mariners -0.5
  • Omega ELO projects Mariners -4.2 spread despite 0.0 blended line; early season pitching injuries tilt to Mariners road favorite
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 inflated by early season small samples; historical MLB avg ~8.5 runs/game, tier data shows totals losing across board
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Castillo 0.00 ERA vs Angels' pitching apocalypse (4 on IL) = Mariners ML edge despite -246 juice, model spread -4.2 hidden value
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700