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MLB
Boston Red Sox
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Detroit Tigers
Tigers
Detroit Tigers
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +7.0% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"BOS ML +100 w/ +3.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme $1.3M whales; Over 8 w/ 65% posterior & MC 9.7-10.2 proj (+20 EV)"
EV / $100
+4.2
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
55%
TOTAL over 8.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 4.8% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$1312880 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 444 trades Kalshi: 81 trades Largest: $93024
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +120.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.5
Win Prob
37.0%
ML
170 / -170

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Detroit Tigers

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -120 / 100 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -146 / 134 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (137) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (102)
De-Vigged Fair Value 145 / -145 -140 / 140 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — Manager Chad Tracy said Tuesday that "all things are pointing toward" Gray (hamstring) being reinstated off the injured list to start Wednesday's game against the Tigers, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Roman Anthony
(LF) day-to-day — Anthony was diagnosed with a sprained right wrist after undergoing an MRI on Tuesday and may not require a trip to the injured list, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Slaten (oblique) allowed one hit and struck out two over a scoreless inning for Double-A Portland on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Coulombe
(RP) 15-day IL — no
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Sandoval (biceps/elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Ranger Suarez
(SP) day-to-day — Suarez (hamstring) is hopeful he will be ready to go for his next scheduled start, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
G
Garrett Crochet
(SP) 15-day IL — Crochet (shoulder) was able to play catch Sunday for the first time since landing on the injured list Wednesday, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Detroit Tigers

B
Beau Brieske
(RP) 60-day IL — Brieske (adductor) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Lakeland on Tuesday, Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gleyber Torres
(2B) day-to-day — Torres (side) is out of the lineup for Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Max Anderson
(2B) day-to-day — Anderson has gone 4-for-7 with two home runs, two walks and one stolen base over three rehab games for Single-A Lakeland since Triple-A Toledo placed him on its 7-day injured list April 5 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tarik Skubal
(SP) 15-day IL — Skubal has been scratched from his scheduled start Monday against the Red Sox due to an undisclosed injury, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Verlander
(SP) 15-day IL — Verlander (hip) threw a bullpen session Sunday at close to full intensity, MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Troy Melton
(RP) 60-day IL — Melton (elbow) yielded two runs (one earned) on two hits and no walks while striking out two batters over 1.2 innings in his rehab start Sunday with Single-A Lakeland.
60-Day-IL
W
Will Vest
(RP) 15-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said Friday that Vest is "not at 100 percent" physically, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Josue Briceno
(C) day-to-day — Briceno said Friday that he expects to be sidelined a few months after having surgery Wednesday to repair a tendon in his right wrist, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javier Baez
(SS) 10-day IL — The Tigers placed Baez on the 10-day injured list Wednesday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
C
Casey Mize
(SP) 15-day IL — Mize was removed from Tuesday's game against Atlanta with an apparent injury, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jackson Jobe
(SP) 60-day IL — Jobe (elbow) threw a bullpen session Tuesday, Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Connor Seabold
(RP) 15-day IL — Detroit moved Seabold to the 15-day IL on Sunday due to left ankle inflammation, Chris McCosky of The Detroit News reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Bailey Horn
(RP) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Horn (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Wednesday, Evan Woodbery of MLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Parker Meadows
(CF) 60-day IL — Tigers manager A.J. Hinch said that Meadows underwent surgery Tuesday to repair a left radius fracture and will be sidelined "multiple months," Jason Beck of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Trey Sweeney
(SS) 60-day IL — The Tigers transferred Sweeney (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (137)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Sonny Gray 15-Day-IL
Roman Anthony Day-To-Day
Beau Brieske 60-Day-IL
Gleyber Torres Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Detroit Tigers

+4.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 60% Lean
"BOS ML +100 w/ +3.2pp Bayesian edge + extreme $1.3M whales; Over 8 w/ 65% posterior & MC 9.7-10.2 proj (+20 EV)"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.3%
Line Movement
Current Spread: DET -120 | ML: DET -120 / BOS +100 | Total: 8.0
Movement No significant line movement detected
Marginal negative EV on BOS ML (+100) per calibrated 48.7% vs 45.5-50% implied; strong +24 EV on over
FULL ANALYSIS
Conflicting signals: sharps/Pinnacle fair value home ML +7% EV at -120, but Bayesian +3.2pp/ MC 50%/whales extreme $1.3M (institutional) all lean BOS away value. Massive total edge w/ 65% over posterior, MC 19.9 combined vs 8 line, Omega 22.5. Degraded data/no pitchers caps at leans; equal injuries net zero.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge 4.8% on Tigers ML, strong signal despite RLM absence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+4.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Boston Red Sox None
+0.8 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.0
+20.1 EV 60% 1.0u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Boston Red Sox 100
  • Bayesian posterior 48.7% away vs market 45.5% (+3.2pp edge); MC away win 50.0%; extreme whale volume $1.3M (103 wallets) on away
SPREAD PICK
○ 60%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 and MC away covers 50.0% at even (HIGH edge conf) vs market Tigers -1.5 -120 implying ~54.5% home cover
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 8.0 vs market 50% (+15.2pp); MC 9.7-10.2, Omega 11.2-11.2-11.2 expected
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Red Sox +2.2 (+7.5 EV, 56% cover) market overprices Tigers vs Omega 0.0; Over 7.0 +24 EV as models proj 20+ runs
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