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Boston Red Sox
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Houston Astros
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Houston Astros
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Houston Astros Houston Astros
"Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.0 = +6.1 EV over 7, HOU ML +4.8 EV on 38% model prob"
EV / $100
+4.8
Win Prob
38%
Edge
-11.6%
Size
1u
SPREAD Houston Astros +1.5
65%
TOTAL Over 7.0 7.0
72%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +17.0
Win Prob
38.4%
ML
160 / -160

Player Props Engine

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Boston Red Sox

Houston Astros

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 132 / -146 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-137) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.0 (-114)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Boston Red Sox

B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
A
Anthony Seigler
(2B) 10-day IL — Boston placed Seigler on the 10-day injured list Wednesday due to left knee patellar tendinopathy.
10-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Sandoval (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Crawford (wrist) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 10-day IL — The Red Sox placed Casas (knee) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Houston Astros

H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Wesneski (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Monday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
E
Enyel De Los Santos
(RP) 15-day IL — De Los Santos (knee) has tossed 2.1 scoreless innings while striking out one and allowing no hits or walks in two appearances for Triple-A Sugar Land since starting a rehab assignment Friday.
15-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — Sousa's oblique injury has been diagnosed as a Grade 1 strain, and he isn't expected to miss more than the minimum 15 days, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 15-day IL — Hader (biceps) threw a bullpen session Friday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Tuesday that the team will "slow down" Pearson's throwing program after the pitcher felt soreness in his surgically repaired right elbow during his last bullpen session, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
15-Day-IL
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Blanco (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday'
15-Day-IL
Z
Zach Dezenzo
(LF) 10-day IL — Astros manager Joe Espada said Sunday that Dezenzo won't be part of the Opening Day roster and will remain at extended spring training to rehab his right elbow injury, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Glenn Otto
(RP) day-to-day — The Astros reassigned Otto (shoulder) and Ray Gaither (shoulder) to minor-league camp Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-137)
Total Over 7.0
Key Injuries
Brendan Rodgers Out
Hobie Harris Day-To-Day
Hayden Wesneski 60-Day-IL
Enyel De Los Santos 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Boston Red Sox @ Houston Astros

+4.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 68% Strong
"Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.0 = +6.1 EV over 7, HOU ML +4.8 EV on 38% model prob"
38% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 38%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -11.6%
Line Movement
Current BOS -156 / HOU +129 / Total 7.0
Movement No movement data available
Houston ML +129 offers +4.8 EV vs market pricing Boston at 60.9% when model sees 38.4% true win prob
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — N=75 MLB graded; vs HOU 1-2, vs BOS 1-1; Poisson/ELO divergence noted
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson projects absurd 12-12 scoring (total 24.0) vs market's tight 7.0, screaming over value at -110. HOU +129 ML has +4.8 EV when model sees 38% win prob vs 61% implied on BOS favorite. Injuries shred both bullpens (Hader/Sousa IL for HOU, Crawford/Casas for BOS) but Hunter Brown 0.84 ERA + Crochet 0.00 tilt SP edge to starters.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Houston Astros
+4.8 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Houston Astros +1.5
+3.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Over 7.0 7.0
+6.1 EV 72% 1.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Houston Astros +129
  • Omega Poisson projects 12-12 expected scores (38.4% HOU win prob) vs market-implied 60.9%
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Houston Astros +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market BOS -1.5 equivalent shows HOU covering edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
OVER 7.5 7.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 creates 16.5pt edge from Poisson projecting 24 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Omega 12-12 projection vs BOS -156 ML (61% imp) = +4.8 EV HOU +129, over 7.5 +6.1 EV on 24-run model
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