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MLB
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee Brewers
Brewers
St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals
St. Louis Cardinals
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +14.7% EV
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Milwaukee Brewers Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
"Omega 22.5 total vs market 8.5 (+14pt edge), 65% Bayesian over + sharp 8% confirmation"
EV / $100
-2.1
Win Prob
49%
Edge
-1.1%
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
54%
TOTAL over 8.5
65%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 8.0% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on moneyline, total.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1159516 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 281 trades Kalshi: 33 trades Largest: $164029
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +110.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
37.9%
ML
164 / -164

Player Props Engine

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Milwaukee Brewers

St. Louis Cardinals

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -110 / -110 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -106 / -102 -
Value Line - -106 / -117 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 1.5 (120)
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-115)
Market Consensus -1.5 (195) - -
De-Vigged Fair Value 210 / -210 -102 / 102 O/U -109 / 109
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Milwaukee Brewers

J
Jacob Misiorowski
(SP) day-to-day — Brewers manager Pat Murphy said Tuesday in an interview on 620 WTMJ that "all things look good" for Misiorowski (hamstring) to make his next scheduled start Wednesday in St. Louis, Adam McCalvy of MLB.comreports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Woodruff
(SP) 15-day IL — Woodruff (shoulder) was examined by Dr. Keith Meister in Dallas on Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Angel Zerpa
(RP) 15-day IL — Zerpa will undergo UCL reconstruction on his left elbow next week, Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Christian Yelich
(LF) 10-day IL — Yelich (groin) is expected to progress to facing live pitching and running the bases early next week, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
Q
Quinn Priester
(SP) 15-day IL — Priester (wrist) is with the Brewers in St. Louis after being pulled from his rehab assignment due to shoulder soreness, Sophia Minnaert of Brewers.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jared Koenig
(RP) 15-day IL — Koenig (elbow) is slated to resume a throwing program Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Gerson Garabito
(RP) day-to-day — Garabito will be out for four months after undergoing surgery to address a broken bone in his foot, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Rob Zastryzny
(RP) 60-day IL — Zastryzny (shoulder) was diagnosed with an intercostal strain and will be sidelined until at least late April, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Akil Baddoo
(LF) 60-day IL — The Brewers placed Baddoo (quadriceps) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
J.B. Bukauskas
(RP) day-to-day — Bukauskas will undergo surgery on his injured right lat and be sidelined for 9-to-10 months, Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports.
Day-To-Day

St. Louis Cardinals

R
Ramon Urias
(3B) 10-day IL — Urias went 3-for-4 with a home run, three RBI and two runs scored in Monday's loss to the Nationals.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Pushard
(RP) 15-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Pushard (knee) will need "several more" rehab appearances at Triple-A Memphis before being activated from the 10-day injured list, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
15-Day-IL
L
Lars Nootbaar
(LF) 60-day IL — Cardinals manager Oliver Marmol said Saturday that Nootbaar (heels) is on track to begin a rehab assignment as soon as the week of May 10, Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Packy Naughton
(RP) day-to-day — Imaging revealed damage to the UCL in Naughton's left elbow Saturday, Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat reports.
Day-To-Day
I
Ixan Henderson
(SP) day-to-day — Henderson (elbow) is starting the season on the 60-day injured list at Triple-A Memphis.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Santos
(RP) day-to-day — Santos (elbow) has compiled a 3.97 ERA, 1.38 WHIP and 26:7 K:BB across 34 innings over his first nine outings (seven starts) in the Dominican Winter League.
Day-To-Day
S
Sem Robberse
(SP) day-to-day — Robberse (elbow) signed a minor-league contract with the Cardinals on Monday, which includes an invitation to spring training, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zack Thompson
(RP) day-to-day — The Cardinals reassigned Thompson (shoulder) to minor-league camp Monday.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals
until first pitch
Current Line
Total Over 1.5
Spread -1.5 (195)
Key Injuries
Jacob Misiorowski Day-To-Day
Brandon Woodruff 15-Day-IL
Ramon Urias 10-Day-IL
Matt Pushard 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Milwaukee Brewers @ St. Louis Cardinals

+-2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Milwaukee Brewers 54% Lean
"Omega 22.5 total vs market 8.5 (+14pt edge), 65% Bayesian over + sharp 8% confirmation"
49% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 49%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -1.1%
Line Movement
Current Spread: STL -110 (pick'em), ML: STL -110 / MIL -110, Total: 8.5 -110
Movement No significant line movement detected
No ML edge; massive +EV on total over only
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson+ELO projects 11.2-11.2 (total 22.5) vs market 8.5, 14pt edge with MC 19.9 avg runs. Bayesian fuses to 65.2% over posterior (+15.2pp vs 50% implied), backed by 8% sharp over divergence and +14.7% EV. Balanced injuries/no pitchers cap game edge; pass ML/spread -EV pick'em.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
-2.1 EV 54%
MONEYLINE Milwaukee Brewers None
-6.7 EV 54%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 54%
Milwaukee Brewers -110
  • Posterior 48.9% away win vs market 47.6% (+1.3pp), weak sharp signal
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Milwaukee Brewers 0.0
  • MC sims show 45.3% away cover rate at pick'em vs 50% breakeven
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over vs 50% implied (+15.2pp); Omega 22.5 total vs market 8.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cards +2.2 (56% posterior +6pp EV) & Over 9.0 (+15pp, omega 22.5 total) crush inefficient market line
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