MLS
LAFC
LAFC
San Diego FC
FC
Ω OMEGA LINE
OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +0.5
Total
7.5
Edge: +4.0
Win Prob
38.8%
ML
158 / -158
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGALAFC
San Diego FC
Model Lines
MODELSpread
-4.6
Moneyline
SAN 193
/
LAF -193
Win Probability
34%
-
66%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
LAFC @ San Diego FC
+-7.7 EV
per $100 wagered
LAFC
58%
Lean
"Models project 7.5-12.8 total vs 3.5 market (+21.6 EV over); LAFC +0.5 value on omega pick'em"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
59%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+9.3%
Line Movement
Current
San Diego FC -0.5 (+125) / LAFC +0.5 (-180) | O/U 3.5 | ML San Diego FC +135 / LAFC -155
Movement
No significant line movement detected
Slight model edge to LAFC ML/spread but negated by heavy juice (-155/-180); total over shows +21.6 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega total 7.5 and Dixon-Coles 12.8 vs market 3.5 screams over with 63.7% posterior (+13.7pp, +21.6 EV). Spread edge to LAFC +0.5 as omega pick'em vs market -0.5 home but juice kills EV (-180). Bayesian fusion moderate agreement, MC medium edge confidence on neutral spread.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
59%
LAFC -155
- Bayesian posterior 59.3% LAFC win vs market prior 57.5% (+1.8pp edge); omega ML -158 vs market -155
SPREAD PICK
○
58%
LAFC 0.5
- Omega spread pick'em (0.0) vs market San Diego FC -0.5 creates 0.5pt value on LAFC +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
64%
OVER 3.5
- Bayesian posterior 63.7% over 3.5 (+13.7pp edge vs 50% market); omega total 7.5 and Dixon-Coles 12.8 explode market line
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Models project 7.5-12.8 total vs 3.5 market (+21.6 EV over); LAFC +0.5 value on omega pick'em
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