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Mixed Martial Arts
Ozzy Diaz
Ozzy Diaz
Diaz
Ateba Gautier
Gautier
Ateba Gautier
Full Game Analysis
Mixed Martial Arts
Ω OMEGA PICK
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Ozzy Diaz Ozzy Diaz 0.5
"Ozzy Diaz ML +100: $10k moderate whale steam (100% conviction) tilts even model to +10 EV"
EV / $100
+2.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Ozzy Diaz None
55%
TOTAL under 4.5
50%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Whale Activity Detected
$10890 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong away consensus (91% of whale volume).
Whales: away Polymarket: 11 trades Largest: $1000

Player Props Engine

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Ozzy Diaz

Ateba Gautier

ELO Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
ATE -100 / OZZ -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

ELO model estimate — not sportsbook lines. Market odds shown above when available from consensus sources.

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Ozzy Diaz @ Ateba Gautier
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Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Ozzy Diaz @ Ateba Gautier

+2.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Ozzy Diaz 54% Lean
"Ozzy Diaz ML +100: $10k moderate whale steam (100% conviction) tilts even model to +10 EV"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current ML: Ateba Gautier +100 / Ozzy Diaz +100; Spread: Ateba Gautier -0.5 / Ozzy Diaz +0.5; Total: 4.5 (all -110, omega_model)
Movement No movement detected (no market odds)
Slight edge from moderate whale volume on Ozzy Diaz at even money; poor data limits size.
FULL ANALYSIS
Even matchup per Bayesian 50/50 posterior with no advanced stats, injuries, or models available. Only signal is moderate whale volume ($10k, 100% on Ozzy Diaz), tilting probs to 55% away win for +EV vs model +100 ML. Poor data (24% quality) and unproven sport cap at Lean tier; spreads viable at +0.5.
SHARP MONEY
Moderate whale volume ($10k total, 100% confidence from 1 profitable wallet) on Ozzy Diaz.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Ozzy Diaz 0.5
+2.8 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Ozzy Diaz None
+10.0 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 4.5
50%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
Ozzy Diaz 100
  • Moderate whale steam ($10k volume, 100% on Ozzy Diaz) creates +10 EV vs even ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Ozzy Diaz 0.5
  • Whale consensus tilts model to 54% cover probability vs -110 line (breakeven 52.4%)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 50%
UNDER 4.5
  • Model projects standard 5-round fight length with no pace/injury signals
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Ozzy Diaz ML +100 (+4 EV) on $10k moderate whale steam in no-data fight
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