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New York Yankees
New York Yankees
Yankees
Boston Red Sox
Sox
Boston Red Sox
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +43.4% EV
67% Sharp Lean
67% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Boston Red Sox Boston Red Sox 1.5
"BOS +1.5 55% Pinnacle fair vs 39% mkt implied (+18.5% sharp edge) + extreme whale BOS, Omega pick'em spread"
EV / $100
+34.6
Win Prob
62%
Edge
+12.5%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 18.5% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1124104 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (90% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 283 trades Kalshi: 91 trades Largest: $50496
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +156.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +15.5
Win Prob
27.1%
ML
269 / -269

Player Props Engine

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New York Yankees

Boston Red Sox

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 122 / -145 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 126 / -139 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-300) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-130) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-107)
De-Vigged Fair Value -123 / 123 133 / -133 O/U -100 / -100
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Yankees

A
Anthony Volpe
(SS) 10-day IL — Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday on Foul Territory that Volpe (shoulder) is "still ten days [or] two weeks away [from being reinstated off the IL], I would think."
10-Day-IL
R
Ryan Weathers
(SP) Paternity — Weathers (1-2) earned the win Sunday against the Royals, allowing no runs on five hits and one walk in 7.1 innings. He struck out eight.
paternity
G
Gerrit Cole
(SP) 15-day IL — Cole (elbow) will make his next rehab start Thursday with High-A Hudson Valley, Gary Phillips of the New York Daily News reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Rodon
(SP) 15-day IL — Rodon (elbow/hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with High-A Hudson Valley on Friday, Greg Joyce of the New York Post reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Clarke Schmidt
(SP) 60-day IL — Schmidt (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Pete Caldera of The Bergen Record reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Rafael Montero
(RP) out — Montero continues to have visa issues and hasn't yet arrived at Yankees camp, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com reports.
Out
T
Travis MacGregor
(SP) day-to-day — MacGregor signed a minor-league contract with the Angels on Monday.
Day-To-Day

Boston Red Sox

R
Roman Anthony
(RF) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said that Anthony is not in the lineup for Wednesday's game against the Yankees due to a sore back, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Triston Casas
(1B) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Casas (abdomen/knee) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kutter Crawford
(SP) 15-day IL — Crawford has been diagnosed with inflammation in his right elbow following an MRI, Tim Healey of The Boston Globe reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sonny Gray
(SP) 15-day IL — The Red Sox placed Gray on the 15-day injured list Tuesday with a right hamstring strain.
15-Day-IL
P
Patrick Sandoval
(SP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Sandoval isn't expected to require further imaging on his left biceps and will likely resume throwing after a few days of rest, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Justin Slaten
(RP) 15-day IL — Red Sox manager Alex Cora told reporters that Slaten (oblique) played catch Friday and Saturday, Gabrielle Starr of the Boston Herald reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Johan Oviedo
(SP) 60-day IL — The Red Sox transferred Oviedo (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Tuesday, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brendan Rodgers
(2B) out — Rodgers (shoulder) re-signed Friday with the Red Sox on a two-year, minor-league contract, Chris Hatfield of SoxProspects.com reports.
Out
H
Hobie Harris
(RP) day-to-day — Red Sox manager Alex Cora said Monday that Harris has been shut down due to forearm tightness, Mac Cerullo of the Boston Herald reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Romy Gonzalez
(1B) 60-day IL — Gonzalez will have his left shoulder injury evaluated Tuesday to determine whether he needs to undergo surgery, Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Houck
(SP) 60-day IL — Houck (elbow) began a throwing program Monday with 25 throws from 45 feet, Ian Browne of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-300)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Anthony Volpe 10-Day-IL
Ryan Weathers paternity
Roman Anthony Day-To-Day
Triston Casas 60-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox

+34.6 EV
per $100 wagered
Boston Red Sox 67% Sharp Lean Calibrated
"BOS +1.5 55% Pinnacle fair vs 39% mkt implied (+18.5% sharp edge) + extreme whale BOS, Omega pick'em spread"
62% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 62%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +12.5%
Line Movement
Current NYY -1.5 -156 / BOS +1.5 +132, ML NYY -156 / BOS +129, Total 8.5
Movement No significant line movement detected
net_home_injury_advantage_+2.3%
Slight +EV on NYY ML at -156 (breakeven 60.9%, our 62.5%), larger on BOS +1.5 (+34.6 EV at +132 with 58% cover prob)
FULL ANALYSIS
Retail juiced NYY runline to -156 (61% implied cover) but Pinnacle fair BOS +1.5 55.2% and Omega 0.0 spread gap screams value, confirmed by 18.5% sharp divergence and MC -0.5 margin. Whales $1.1M extreme volume 90% BOS ML aligns contrarian vs public NYY steam. Total 8.5 vs proj 21 runs (Omega 24, MC 20.9) offers blowout over edge despite historical total weakness.
SHARP MONEY
Pinnacle de-vig BOS +1.5 cover 55.2% vs retail implied 39% BOS cover (NYY -156 = 61% NYY cover), 18.5% sharp divergence despite label; +EV spread away at other books confirms inefficiency
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Boston Red Sox 1.5
+34.6 EV 67% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Yankees None
+2.6 EV 60% 0.5u
TOTAL over 8.5
+8.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
New York Yankees -156
  • Bayesian posterior NYY win 62.5% vs market implied 60.9%, model consensus 72.4% NYY (27.6% BOS)
SPREAD PICK
● 67%
Boston Red Sox 1.5
  • Pinnacle fair BOS +1.5 cover 55.2% vs DraftKings NYY -1.5 -156 implying 61% NYY cover (39% BOS), 18.5% divergence + Omega spread 0.0
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.5
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC projected 20.9 (10.2-10.7) vs market 8.5, 15.5pt edge
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
MC 20.9 runs vs 8.5 total (+18.5 EV over); NYY -1.5 +43% EV sharp edge (18.5% div)
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