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MLB
Colorado Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.2% EV ALIGNED
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Colorado Rockies Colorado Rockies 1.5
"Over 8.5 +24.5 EV (MC 19.9 exp total) vs crushed market line; Rockies +1.5 model edge"
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
60%
TOTAL over 8.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.0% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$485587 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (83% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 176 trades Kalshi: 64 trades Largest: $30263
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
41.8%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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Colorado Rockies

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -177 / 145 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -169 / 151 -
Value Line - -177 / 140 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (235) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (123) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 9.0 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 131 / -131 -161 / 161 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Colorado Rockies

R
Ryan Feltner
(SP) 15-day IL — The Rockies placed Feltner on the 15-day injured list Friday with right ulnar nerve inflammation.
15-Day-IL
J
Jeff Criswell
(RP) 60-day IL — Criswell (elbow) will face live hitters over the weekend and begin a rehab assignment shortly thereafter, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Brown (shoulder) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) day-to-day — Williamson (2-2) took the loss Wednesday as the Reds were downed 6-1 by the Rays, coughing up five runs on seven hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. He struck out three.
Day-To-Day
E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Reds manager Terry Francona said Wednesday that Suarez's left oblique remains tender, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
G
Graham Ashcraft
(RP) Bereavement — Ashcraft walked one and struck out one over a scoreless 10th inning to earn the save in Sunday's 7-4 win over Minnesota.
bereavement
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) will make his next rehab start Saturday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — The Reds assigned Ferguson (oblique) to Double-A Chattanooga to begin a rehab assignment Tuesday.
15-Day-IL
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (235)
Total Over 9.0
Key Injuries
Ryan Feltner 15-Day-IL
Jeff Criswell 60-Day-IL
Brandon Williamson Day-To-Day
Eugenio Suarez 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Colorado Rockies @ Cincinnati Reds

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Colorado Rockies 55% Lean
"Over 8.5 +24.5 EV (MC 19.9 exp total) vs crushed market line; Rockies +1.5 model edge"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.1%
Line Movement
Current Reds -1.5 / Rockies +1.5 | Total 8.5 | ML Reds -159 / Rockies +128
Movement No significant movement detected
Home injury disadvantage (-2.3% net impact)
No positive EV on ML; value on spread away (+2.9) and total over (+24.5)
FULL ANALYSIS
Market total 8.5 crushed vs MC 19.9 proj and Omega 22.5 (+15.2pp over edge, 65% posterior) screams value despite no pitchers. Rockies +1.5 has 53.9% cover posterior as Omega even spread lags market -1.5 amid home injuries (-11% lambda). Sharps/whales pile home ML (5% edge) but neg EV and model agreement very low caps aggression.
SHARP MONEY
5.0% sharp edge on home ML; strong signal despite model divergence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Colorado Rockies 1.5
+2.9 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds None
-2.1 EV 60%
TOTAL over 8.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Cincinnati Reds -159
  • Posterior 60.1% aligns near market 61.4%; sharp/whale extreme confirmation
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
Colorado Rockies 1.5
  • Away cover posterior 53.9% (+3.9pp edge) vs Omega even spread (0.0) and MC margin +0.5
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 8.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% (+15.2pp edge) vs absurdly low 8.5 market total; MC proj 19.9, Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds spread -2.2 +41% EV (Pinnacle 47% fair vs retail +200); sharps + whales confirm vs 67% ML no-edge
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