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Toronto Blue Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Tampa Bay Rays
Rays
Tampa Bay Rays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +57.8% EV
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
"Rays ML +1.9pp Bayesian edge + extreme institutional whales $1M; Over 7.5 +15.2pp (Omega 22.5 total vs mkt 7.5)"
EV / $100
+15.2
Win Prob
61%
Edge
+10.8%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
62%
TOTAL over 7.5
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1041639 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (78% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 396 trades Kalshi: 1049 trades Largest: $26463
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
22.5
Edge: +15.0
Win Prob
43.9%
ML
128 / -128

Player Props Engine

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Toronto Blue Jays

Tampa Bay Rays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -141 / 112 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (160) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-109)
De-Vigged Fair Value 172 / -172 -127 / 127 O/U -102 / 102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Toronto Blue Jays

J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 15-day IL — Berrios will undergo an MRI on his right elbow after he felt more sore than normal following his rehab start with Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday, Brian Murphy of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Monday that Barger (ankles) being activated from the 10-day injured list on Friday would be a "worst-case scenario,"Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
N
Nathan Lukes
(RF) 10-day IL — Lukes (hamstring) resumed hitting in the batting cages Friday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Javen Coleman
(P) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Alejandro Kirk
(C) 10-day IL — Kirk (thumb) has begun a throwing program at the Blue Jays' complex in Florida, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Scherzer (1-3) took the loss Friday, surrendering seven runs on six hits -- including three home runs -- and three walks over 2.1 innings as the Blue Jays fell 8-6 to the Guardians. He failed to strike out a batter.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Garcia (elbow) will throw live batting practice Wednesday, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
C
CJ Stubbs
(C) day-to-day — The Blue Jays signed Stubbs to a minor-league contract Friday that includes an invitation to spring training.
Day-To-Day
S
Shane Bieber
(SP) 60-day IL — Bieber (elbow) will throw a bullpen session Tuesday, Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
L
Lazaro Estrada
(RP) 15-day IL — Toronto optioned Estrada to Triple-A Buffalo on Sunday.
15-Day-IL
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Toronto transferred Santander (shoulder) from the 10-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — Manager John Schneider revealed Tuesday that Francis is undergoing UCL reconstruction surgery on his right elbow and will miss the 2026 season, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL

Tampa Bay Rays

M
Michael Grove
(RP) 60-day IL — Grove (shoulder) is scheduled to face hitters this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
S
Steven Matz
(SP) 15-day IL — Matz's (elbow) stint on the 15-day injured list is not expected to last long, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Boyle
(SP) 15-day IL — Boyle (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mason Englert
(RP) 15-day IL — Englert (forearm) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Durham on Wednesday, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
15-Day-IL
R
Ryan Pepiot
(SP) 60-day IL — Pepiot will undergo surgery on his right hip May 13 and miss the rest of the 2026 season, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
G
Gavin Lux
(LF) 10-day IL — Lux (shoulder/ankle) went 1-for-3 with two walks and a run scored Tuesday in a rehab game for Triple-A Durham.
10-Day-IL
E
Edwin Uceta
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rays transferred Uceta (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Friday, Ryan Bass of Rays.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
T
TJ Nichols
(P) day-to-day — Double-A Montgomery placed Nichols on its 7-day injured list April 7 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
T
Tre' Morgan
(1B) day-to-day — Triple-A Durham activated Morgan (quadricep) from its 7-day injured list Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
A
Alfredo Zarraga
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
K
Keyshawn Askew
(RP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
A
Austin Vernon
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays have shut Vernon down from throwing due to right elbow soreness, per MLB.com.
Day-To-Day
T
Ty Johnson
(SP) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
S
Steven Wilson
(RP) 60-day IL — Wilson said Sunday that his lower back has responded well to an injection, and he hopes to be ready to make his season debut shortly after Opening Day, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
J
John Rooney
(RP) day-to-day — The Rays signed Rooney (elbow) to a minor-league contract Nov. 15.
Day-To-Day
L
Logan Driscoll
(C) day-to-day — The Rays released Driscoll (ankle) on Friday, Ryan Bass of FanDuel Sports Network Sun reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Manuel Rodriguez
(RP) 60-day IL — Rodriguez will have right elbow surgery Aug. 8 to address a flexor tendon repair, and his UCL will be evaluated during the surgery to determine if any additional procedures are needed, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Jose Berrios 15-Day-IL
Addison Barger 10-Day-IL
Michael Grove 60-Day-IL
Steven Matz 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays

+15.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Tampa Bay Rays 65% Sharp Lean
"Rays ML +1.9pp Bayesian edge + extreme institutional whales $1M; Over 7.5 +15.2pp (Omega 22.5 total vs mkt 7.5)"
61% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 61%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.8%
Line Movement
Current Rays -143 ML / Blue Jays +119 ML, O/U 7.5, Spread Rays -1.5 -143
Movement No significant movement
Home injury impact -10.6% > away -8.7%
Modest +3.4 EV on Rays ML; +24.5 EV on over 7.5 from 65.2% posterior
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fuses to 60.8% Rays ML (+1.9pp edge) confirmed by extreme $1M+ whales (79% conviction) and 15.2% sharp spread divergence favoring home cover. Model total 22.5 vs market 7.5 yields +15.2pp over edge despite MC under bias at high line. Injuries hit Rays harder (-10.6%) but home signals dominate; degraded data (68%) and low model agreement cap at Lean/Sharp Lean. Vs Jays 24-34 historically.
SHARP MONEY
15.2% sharp edge on home spread + overall home favoritism; +57.8% EV on home spread per Pinnacle devig
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
+15.2 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE Tampa Bay Rays None
+3.4 EV 62% 0.5u
TOTAL over 7.5
+24.5 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 62%
Tampa Bay Rays -143
  • Bayesian posterior 60.8% vs 58.9% market implied (+1.9pp edge)
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Tampa Bay Rays -1.5
  • Sharp divergence 15.2% on Rays spread cover + Pinnacle fair value implies +EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 7.5
  • Over posterior 65.2% vs 50% market (+15.2pp); Omega total 22.5 >> market 7.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Jays +2.2 (56% cover vs 50% mkt, Omega even line) + over 8 (65% prob, 22.5 Omega total) despite whale Rays steam
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