PGA Tour
Haotong Li
Li
Johnny Keefer
Keefer
Player Props Engine
Powered by OMEGAHaotong Li
Johnny Keefer
Model Lines
MODELSpread
—
Moneyline
JOH -100
/
HAO -100
Win Probability
50%
-
50%
Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.
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OMEGA ANALYSIS
Haotong Li @ Johnny Keefer
+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Haotong Li
58%
Lean
"Li -250 ML +5.6 EV: OWGR 250 vs 800+ + pro experience trumps amateur upside"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
75%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+25.0%
Line Movement
Open
omega_model
Current
Haotong Li -250 / Johnny Keefer +210
Movement
N/A (model-generated)
+5.6 EV on Haotong Li ML at model -250; exceeds breakeven by 3.6%
FULL ANALYSIS
Haotong Li's established OWGR (~250) and PGA Tour experience project 75% win probability vs Johnny Keefer (amateur/OWGR ~800+), generating model -250 ML with +5.6 EV. Spread edge at -2.5 strokes from ball-striking gap; unknown venue caps total confidence at 55%. Poor data quality forces 55-62 range despite clear talent disparity.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
○
58%
Fred Couples -125
- Model win prob 58% exceeds -125 breakeven by 2.4%; Couples consistent performer
SPREAD PICK
○
55%
Fred Couples -1.5
- Couples' superior recent senior tour form vs Cabrera's extended layoff rust
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○
55%
UNDER 142.5
- Veteran matchup projects lower scoring due to conservative play styles
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Couples -125 ML (58% model prob, +2.1 EV) exploits Cabrera layoff rust vs veteran form
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