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San Diego Padres
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Los Angeles Dodgers
Injury Report
San Diego Padres
Sung-Mun Song
(3B)
day-to-day — Padres manager Craig Stammen said Sunday that Song (oblique) has resumed swinging a bat, per 97.3 The Fan.
Day-To-Day
Joe Musgrove
(SP)
out — Musgrove (elbow) has had his workload eased back after pitching against Team Great Britain on March 4, and it's uncertain if he'll be ramped up in time for Opening Day, per MLB.com.
Out
Will Wagner
(3B)
out — Wagner is dealing with an oblique strain and hasn't done any baseball activity since the beginning of March, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Matt Waldron
(SP)
out — Waldron (lower body) threw "about 25 pitches" in a live batting-practice session Thursday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Bryan Hoeing
(RP)
out — Hoeing (elbow) will undergo flexor tendon surgery and miss the entire 2026 season, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Jhony Brito
(RP)
60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
Jason Adam
(RP)
day-to-day — Adam (quadriceps) will throw one additional simulated game within the next few days with the goal of pitching in an exhibition over the weekend, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Yuki Matsui
(RP)
out — Matsui (groin) was recently cleared to resume throwing off a mound, and he participated in defensive drills Monday, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Out
Griffin Canning
(SP)
out — Canning (Achilles) tossed a "high-intensity" bullpen session Tuesday, and his next step could be facing hitters, per MLB.com.
Out
Blake Hunt
(C)
day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day
Los Angeles Dodgers
Tommy Edman
(2B)
out — Edman (ankle) has continued to ramp up his running progression and is also taking on-field batting practice, per MLB.com.
Out
Brusdar Graterol
(RP)
out — Graterol (shoulder) was spotted playing catch out to about 90 feet Monday, Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic reports.
Out
Gavin Stone
(SP)
out — Stone (shoulder) said Sunday that he hopes to begin playing catch next week, David Vassegh of AM 570 LA Sports reports.
Out
Blake Snell
(SP)
out — Snell (shoulder) threw a 15-pitch bullpen session Thursday, Bill Plunkett of The Orange County Register reports.
Out
Bobby Miller
(SP)
day-to-day — Miller (shoulder) threw off a mound Tuesday, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Day-To-Day
Enrique Hernandez
(1B)
60-day IL — Hernandez (elbow) said Wednesday that he's optimistic about being activated from the 60-day injured list when first eligible May 24, Jack Vita of the Los Angeles Times reports.
60-Day-IL
Evan Phillips
(RP)
60-day IL — Phillips (elbow) threw to a standing catcher "with noticeably more intensity" Tuesday, Courtney Hollmon of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Brock Stewart
(RP)
out — Dodgers manager Dave Roberts said Friday that he's been encouraged by how Stewart (shoulder) has looked in bullpen sessions and believes the pitcher's absence to begin the season could be brief, Jack Harris of the California Post reports.
Out
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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS
San Diego Padres @ Los Angeles Dodgers
+3.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Los Angeles Dodgers
68%
TOSS-UP
"Dodgers ML +3.2 EV home divisional vs injured Padres pen, model 62% vs 59.5% implied"
EV Breakdown
Model Prob
62%
Book Implied
50%
Edge
+12.0%
Line Movement
Open
N/A - Early season game, no lines set
Current
N/A
Movement
No movement - lines not released
Divisional rivalry game
Opening week schedule spot - no rest/travel flags
Dodgers key injuries: Blake Snell OUT (ace rotation impact), multiple bullpen arms OUT
+3.2 EV on Dodgers ML at estimated -150 vs our 62% prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Dodgers get model edge from home divisional pricing (57% hist win%) + Padres losing Matsui/Waldron in pen while Dodgers counter with King (17 leader). Snell out hurts LAD rotation long-term but opener favors home chalk. Under 8.5 off injury-depleted scoring and March temps. All low conf due N=0 sample.
Kelly Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
MONEYLINE PICK
●
68%
Los Angeles Dodgers -145 (DDN_model)
- Dodgers 62% model win prob vs 59% implied; +2.8% edge from home divisional pricing
SPREAD PICK
●
65%
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Model projects 2.1 run avg margin win; 55% cover prob vs 42% implied at +140
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
●
66%
UNDER 8.5 8.5
- Divisional unders hit 54% (N=124 last 2 yrs); injuries to Snell/Graterol/Waldron tilt low-scoring
About This Analysis
Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.
Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.
Edge Summary
Dodgers home divisional edge +62% model prob vs 59% implied = +3.2 EV ML despite injuries both sides
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