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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Colorado Rockies
Rockies
Colorado Rockies
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +31.8% EV
60% Lean
60% Lean
MONEYLINE
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates None
"Sharp money +31.8% EV on Pirates spread at Bovada; $282K whale volume confirms the edge despite missing pitcher data."
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+1.7%
Size
0.5u
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
65%
TOTAL over 11.5
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 16.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: away Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$282050 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: away Polymarket: 170 trades Largest: $18074

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Colorado Rockies

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - 114 / -136 ↑ -
Market Consensus - 118 / -131 -
Value Line - 112 / -137 -
Sharp Action Best Line 3.0 (-260) - -
Market Consensus 1.5 (-127) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 11.5 (-101)
De-Vigged Fair Value -120 / 120 125 / -125 O/U 106 / -106
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

O
Oneil Cruz
(CF) 10-day IL — Pirates general manager Ben Cherington said Sunday that Cruz (hand) is facing an estimated recovery timeline of 4-6 weeks, Danny Demilio of PittsburghBaseballNow.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Konnor Griffin
(SS) 10-day IL — Griffin will report to the Pirates' facility in Bradenton, Fla. during the upcoming week to continue rehab for his right forearm strain, Aidan Stepansky of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
W
Wilber Dotel
(RP) 15-day IL — The Pirates recalled Dotel from Triple-A Indianapolis on Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo underwent left shoulder labrum surgery and is expected to be sidelined until at least April 2027, Mark Chiarelli of Baseball America reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mitch Jebb
(LF) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Chris Devenski
(RP) 60-day IL — Devenski (illness) was transferred from the 15-day IL to the 60-day IL on Sunday.
60-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Clevinger
(RP) day-to-day — Clevinger is expected to be sidelined for around six weeks after being diagnosed with an MCL sprain in his right knee, Jason Mackey of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
S
Sean Sullivan
(SP) day-to-day — Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Wednesday that Sullivan is battling right elbow soreness, Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

Colorado Rockies

B
Brenton Doyle
(CF) 10-day IL — Doyle (oblique) worked in the batting cage Monday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jordan Beck
(LF) 10-day IL — Beck (hamstring) stretched and did running drills prior to Tuesday's game against the Cubs, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
M
Mickey Moniak
(LF) 10-day IL — Moniak (ankle) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Albuquerque on Thursday, MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Chase Dollander
(SP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer said Friday that Dollander will likely undergo surgery to repair the UCL in his right elbow, Kevin Henry of The Denver Gazette reports.
60-Day-IL
T
Tanner Gordon
(RP) 15-day IL — Gordon (0-1) took the loss Sunday, allowing four runs on six hits and a walk over three-plus innings against San Francisco. He struck out two.
15-Day-IL
W
Welinton Herrera
(RP) 60-day IL — Rockies manager Warren Schaeffer announced Monday that Herrera (elbow) has been diagnosed with a torn UCL and will miss the remainder of the season, Jack Janes of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
McCade Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — Brown (shoulder) had been scheduled to throw a live bullpen session this weekend, MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Quintana
(SP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Quintana on the 15-day injured list Monday with a left elbow sprain.
60-Day-IL
R
RJ Petit
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies transferred Petit (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brayan Castillo
(RP) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Castillo is dealing with right lat tightness and has been shut down from throwing while undergoing treatment for the injury, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
P
Pierson Ohl
(RP) 60-day IL — The Rockies placed Ohl (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kris Bryant
(DH) 60-day IL — Bryant said Tuesday that the ongoing pain in his back continues to prevent him from participating in baseball activities, though he's still consulting with doctors and trainers for potential rehab options, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Case Williams
(SP) day-to-day — Williams is currently slowed by a stress reaction in his right triceps, Thomas Harding of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Thomas
(CF) day-to-day — The Rockies announced Monday that Thomas hasn't been participating in spring training while he recovers from offseason surgery to address a fractured hamate bone in his right wrist, TheDNVR.com reports.
Day-To-Day
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 3.0 (-260)
Total Over 11.5
Key Injuries
Oneil Cruz 10-Day-IL
Konnor Griffin 10-Day-IL
Brenton Doyle 10-Day-IL
Jordan Beck 10-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Colorado Rockies

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 60% Lean
"Sharp money +31.8% EV on Pirates spread at Bovada; $282K whale volume confirms the edge despite missing pitcher data."
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 59%
Edge +1.7%
Line Movement
Current PIT -143 / COL +119 | Total 11.5
Movement No significant movement detected
Coors Field — highest park factor in MLB, inflates scoring by ~35% No probable pitchers listed — significant uncertainty on both sides Both teams have ~9.7% injury impact (Day-to-Day players), roughly equal
Modest edge on Pirates ML. The +190 spread on Sharp Action offers a much larger +31.8% EV but is a prop bet, not the main line.
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharp money is heavily on the Pirates spread (+190 on Bovada, +31.8% EV vs Pinnacle fair value) with $282K in whale volume. The Bayesian posterior (54.3% away) aligns with prediction markets (55.5% away). However, no starting pitcher data degrades confidence significantly — this is a bet on the sharp signal, not on a specific matchup edge. Coors Field inflates scoring, but the total of 11.5 already prices that in. The spread is the strongest play here.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 16.3% (strong signal). +EV analysis shows +31.8% EV on Pirates spread at Bovada. Whale volume is $282K (EXTREME tier) on away side. Prediction markets (55.5% away) align with sharp books.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Pittsburgh Pirates None
+2.9 EV 60% 0.5u
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
+6.2 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 11.5
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 60%
Pittsburgh Pirates -143
  • Sharp money + prediction markets + whale volume all converge on Pirates; Bayesian posterior is 54.3% away, but -143 odds require 58.8% breakeven — edge is thin
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Pittsburgh Pirates 1.5
  • Sharp edge on spread is 16.3% (strong signal)
  • +EV analysis shows +31.8% EV on Pirates spread at Bovada
  • Whale volume is $282K (EXTREME tier) on away side
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 11.5
  • Coors Field park factor (+35% scoring) and elevated total (11.5) suggest books already price in the environment
  • No pitcher data makes over/under a coin flip
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Coors altitude and whale volume ($273K) lean Rockies +1.5, but missing pitcher data + low model agreement caps confidence to lean-tier at best — model edge marginal at +2.3%
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