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MLB
Houston Astros
Houston Astros
Astros
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +7.5% EV EARLY VALUE
56% Lean
56% Lean
SPREAD
Houston Astros Houston Astros 2.2
"Astros +112 ML +10.9pp Bayesian edge, Omega 0 spread vs mkt -2.2, over 9 +15.2pp"
EV / $100
+7.5
Win Prob
53%
Edge
+3.1%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
53%
TOTAL over 9.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 4.4% divergence on ML with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +1
Whale Activity Detected
$1060399 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 254 trades Kalshi: 127 trades Largest: $319165
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +2.2
Total
22.5
Edge: +13.5
Win Prob
31.0%
ML
223 / -223

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Houston Astros

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -125 / 105 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -154 / 142 -
Value Line - -132 / 106 -
Market Consensus -1.5 (130) - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-117)
De-Vigged Fair Value 137 / -137 -148 / 148 O/U -110 / 110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Houston Astros

J
Jeremy Pena
(SS) 10-day IL — Pena (hamstring) ran the bases Saturday, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
H
Hunter Brown
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros transferred Brown (shoulder) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
B
Bennett Sousa
(RP) 15-day IL — The Astros placed Sousa on the 15-day injured list Saturday with left elbow inflammation, retroactive to Wednesday, Julia Morales of Space City Home Network reports.
15-Day-IL
H
Hayden Wesneski
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Wesneski (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joey Loperfido
(LF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Loperfido (quadriceps) has started light running and light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Tatsuya Imai
(SP) 15-day IL — Astros general manager Dana Brown said Tuesday that Imai (arm) will rejoin the rotation next week versus the Mariners, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Carlos Correa
(SS) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Correa (ankle) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jake Meyers
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Meyers (oblique) has started swinging a bat and reincorporating other baseball activities, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Taylor Trammell
(CF) 10-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Trammell (groin) has begun a running progression in addition to taking part in light baseball activity, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Ronel Blanco
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Blanco (elbow) is continuing to complete regular bullpen sessions as part of his throwing progression, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL
L
Lance McCullers Jr.
(SP) day-to-day — McCullers was removed from his start Wednesday against the Dodgers in the top of the third inning after he appeared to be contending with a blister on his pitching hand, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports. He was charged with six earned runs on four hits and three walks over 2.2 innings prior to his departure.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Walter
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros placed Walter (elbow) on the 60-day injured list.
60-Day-IL
W
Walker Janek
(C) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Janek on its 7-day injured list Sunday due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
N
Nate Pearson
(RP) 15-day IL — Pearson (elbow) permitted one run on one hit and four walks over two innings in his first rehab start with Triple-A Sugar Land on Thursday.
15-Day-IL
L
Lucas Spence
(OF) day-to-day — Double-A Corpus Christi placed Spence on its 7-day injured list April 22 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
J
Josh Hader
(RP) 60-day IL — Hader (biceps) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Sugar Land on Tuesday, Chandler Rome of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
Y
Yainer Diaz
(C) 10-day IL — The Astros placed Diaz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Tuesday, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
C
Cristian Javier
(SP) 60-day IL — The Astros announced Monday that Javier (shoulder) will begin a throwing progression this week, Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle reports.
60-Day-IL

Cincinnati Reds

E
Eugenio Suarez
(3B) 10-day IL — Suarez (oblique) took 50 swings Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Rhett Lowder
(SP) day-to-day — Lowder was given an injection in the AC joint of his right shoulder after an MRI on Friday came back negative, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — Ferguson (oblique) allowed one run on one hit and struck out two over one inning for Double-A Chattanooga on Friday.
15-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Twins reinstated Staumont (calf) from the 15-day injured list Friday and optioned him to Triple-A St. Paul, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — Greene (elbow) is playing catch from 110 feet and is about three weeks away from progressing to bullpen sessions, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Brandon Williamson
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds transferred Williamson (shoulder) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
E
Emilio Pagan
(RP) 15-day IL — Pagan said Wednesday that he's been diagnosed with a Grade 2 left hamstring strain and is expected to be sidelined 4-to-8 weeks, Gordon Wittenmyer of The Cincinnati Enquirer reports.
15-Day-IL
Game Preview
Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -1.5 (130)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Jeremy Pena 10-Day-IL
Hunter Brown 60-Day-IL
Eugenio Suarez 10-Day-IL
Rhett Lowder Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Houston Astros @ Cincinnati Reds

+7.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Houston Astros 56% Lean
"Astros +112 ML +10.9pp Bayesian edge, Omega 0 spread vs mkt -2.2, over 9 +15.2pp"
53% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 53%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +3.1%
Line Movement
Current Reds -2.2 / Astros +2.2 | O/U 9.0 | ML Reds -137 / Astros +112
Movement No significant line movement detected
Strong +EV on Astros ML at +112 (breakeven 47.2%, our 53.1%)
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion shows 10.9pp edge to Astros ML (53.1% posterior vs 42.2% implied) with Omega even spread at 0 vs market Reds -2.2. Total massively undervalued at 9 (65% over posterior, MC 19.2 projected). Whales extreme on Reds but ML sharps align with models; degraded data caps conviction.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Houston Astros 2.2
+7.5 EV 56% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Houston Astros None
+12.6 EV 53% 0.5u
TOTAL over 9.0
+17.3 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 53%
Houston Astros 112
  • Bayesian posterior 53.1% Astros win vs market 42.2% (+10.9pp edge), ML sharp 3.5% divergence
SPREAD PICK
○ 56%
Houston Astros 2.2
  • Bayesian posterior 56.3% Astros cover +2.2 vs market 50% (+6.3pp edge), Omega spread 0.0 vs market -2.2
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 60%
OVER 9.0
  • Bayesian posterior 65.2% over 9 vs market 50% (+15.2pp), MC projected 19.2 and Omega 22.5
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Reds spread gets 14% sharp edge + extreme whales ($112k vol) despite neutral Bayesian ML
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