Home › Serie A › Como @ Udinese
Serie A
Como
Como
Como
Udinese
Udinese
Udinese
Full Game Analysis
Serie A
Ω OMEGA PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
Como Como -0.5
"Como +400 ML (52% model vs 20% breakeven) undervalued vs 11-6-13 Udinese despite home field, +8.6 EV"
EV / $100
+2.1
Win Prob
52%
Edge
+2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Como None
58%
TOTAL under 2.5
54%
Full OMEGA Breakdown

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Como

Udinese

Model Lines

MODEL
Spread
—
Moneyline
UDI -100 / COM -100
Win Probability
50% - 50%

Internal model estimate. Bookmaker lines will update when available.

Game Preview
Como @ Udinese
until kickoff
Analysis starts at kickoff

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Como @ Udinese

+2.1 EV
per $100 wagered
Como 55% Lean
"Como +400 ML (52% model vs 20% breakeven) undervalued vs 11-6-13 Udinese despite home field, +8.6 EV"
52% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 52%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +2.0%
Line Movement
Current Como -0.5 (-160) / Udinese +0.5 (+115), ML Como +400 / Udinese -155, Total 2.5
Movement No movement data
Como ML +400 offers +4.2 EV despite poor data quality; breakeven 20% vs our 52% prob
FULL ANALYSIS
Como 16-9-5 record crushes Udinese's 11-6-13 but market prices Udinese -155 home fav with Como +400 dog. Model sees 52% Como win prob vs 60.8% implied, +4.2 EV on ML. Data quality poor (17%) caps confidence but record gap + soccer dog value = playable edge. Props lean overs on goalscorers Davis/Douvikas (0.38/0.37 avgs).
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Como -0.5
+2.1 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Como None
+8.6 EV 58% 1u
TOTAL under 2.5
+1.8 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 42%
Udinese 380
  • Heavy juice on Como -150 requires 60% breakeven; model sees regression risk
SPREAD PICK
● 64%
Como -0.5
  • Model prob 64% vs 60% implied; Udinese +380 home dog overprices home team in neutral matchup
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Serie A avg 2.4 goals/game; model projects 2.1 total in neutral matchup
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Como -0.5 +3.2 EV (64% model vs 60% implied); Udinese home dog juice inefficiency
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