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New York Mets
New York Mets
Mets
Toronto Blue Jays
Jays
Toronto Blue Jays
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +50.0% EV ALIGNED
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
TOTAL
over over 8.5
"Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 8.5 in Mets-Blue Jays, despite degraded data quality and conflicting sharp signals."
EV / $100
+18.5
Win Prob
65%
Edge
+15.2%
Size
1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
56%
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
55%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.3% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$265474 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game.
Whales: home Polymarket: 78 trades Kalshi: 260 trades Largest: $32641
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +14.0
Win Prob
34.1%
ML
193 / -193

Player Props Engine

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New York Mets

Toronto Blue Jays

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -128 / 107 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -123 / 112 -
Value Line - -132 / 107 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (330) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (166) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (-106)
De-Vigged Fair Value 179 / -179 -118 / 118 O/U 101 / -101
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

New York Mets

C
Clay Holmes
(SP) 60-day IL — Holmes (fibula) has been throwing on flat ground and is expected to progress to mound work next week, Chelsea Janes of SNY.tv reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 60-day IL — Polanco (Achilles) will begin a rehab assignment at Triple-A Syracuse on Saturday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
60-Day-IL
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — Nunez (elbow) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Marcus Semien
(2B) 10-day IL — Semien went 2-for-4 with a triple and two RBI in Thursday's win over the Phillies.
10-Day-IL
L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) 60-day IL — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Robert "looked normal" while taking a full session of batting practice in the cages Tuesday, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Christian Arroyo
(2B) day-to-day — The Mets re-signed Arroyo to a minor-league contract Tuesday.
Day-To-Day
R
Ryan Lambert
(RP) day-to-day — Triple-A Syracuse placed Lambert on the 7-day injured list June 4 due to an unspecified injury.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Baumann
(RP) day-to-day — Baumann signed a minor-league deal with the Mets on Wednesday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
Day-To-Day
B
Brandon Waddell
(RP) day-to-day — Waddell (shoulder) picked up the win after allowing three runs on four hits while striking out two across three innings during Saturday's game against Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes Barre.
Day-To-Day
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) day-to-day — Tauchman (knee) is still rehabbing at the Mets' spring training complex and has yet to resume baseball activities, Tim Britton of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Joe Jacques
(RP) day-to-day — The Mets signed Jacques to a minor-league contract Wednesday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
Day-To-Day
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Rojas
(3B) day-to-day — Triple-A Salt Lake placed Rojas on its COVID-19 injured list Sunday, Jeff Fletcher of The Orange County Register reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Megill (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock (shoulder) said Sunday that he'll require surgery to address thoracic outlet syndrome and could be sidelined for the remainder of the season, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out

Toronto Blue Jays

J
Jesus Sanchez
(RF) 10-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Sanchez on the 10-day injured list Saturday with a right ankle sprain.
10-Day-IL
R
RJ Schreck
(LF) day-to-day — Schreck (hand) has gone 2-for-8 with a home run, two RBI and an additional run in two games for Triple-A Buffalo since being reinstated from the 7-day injured list Friday.
Day-To-Day
Y
Yimi Garcia
(RP) 60-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Thursday that Garcia (elbow) remains in a holding pattern due to neck and biceps nerve symptoms, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
M
Max Scherzer
(SP) 15-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Thursday that Scherzer (back) will travel to Dallas on Friday to get a cortisone shot to "help alleviate some left side stuff," Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
15-Day-IL
A
Addison Barger
(RF) 10-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said Wednesday that Barger (elbow) will fly back to Toronto soon to be examined by the medical staff before potentially beginning a rehab assignment, Keegan Matheson of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
L
Lenyn Sosa
(2B) 10-day IL — Sosa (wrist) will begin a rehab assignment Monday with the Blue Jays' Arizona Complex League affiliate, Mitch Bannon of The Athletic reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Anthony Santander
(RF) 60-day IL — Santander (shoulder) could resume hitting within the next week, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Mantiply
(RP) 60-day IL — Mantiply will undergo arthroscopic surgery to repair some damage in his left knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jose Berrios
(SP) 60-day IL — Blue Jays manager John Schneider said that Berrios underwent full Tommy John surgery Wednesday in addition to having a stress fracture repaired, Hazel Mae of Sportsnet reports.
60-Day-IL
F
Fernando Perez
(P) Developmental List
developmental list
G
Geovanny Jesus Planchart
(C) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
C
Chay Yeager
(RP) day-to-day — Yeager will undergo season-ending UCL surgery on his right elbow Wednesday, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Cody Ponce
(SP) 60-day IL — Ponce underwent surgery Friday to repair the ACL in his right knee, Arden Zwelling of Sportsnet.ca reports.
60-Day-IL
B
Bowden Francis
(SP) 60-day IL — The Blue Jays placed Francis (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (330)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Clay Holmes 60-Day-IL
Jorge Polanco 60-Day-IL
Jesus Sanchez 10-Day-IL
RJ Schreck Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

New York Mets @ Toronto Blue Jays

+18.5 EV
per $100 wagered
over 65% Sharp Lean
"Bayesian fusion shows +15.2pp edge on over 8.5 in Mets-Blue Jays, despite degraded data quality and conflicting sharp signals."
65% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 65%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +15.2%
Line Movement
Current Total 8.5, Moneyline Home -131 / Away +108, Spread -1.5
Movement No significant movement detected
calibrated posterior shows +15.2pp edge on over 8.5, translating to +18.5% EV per $100 at -110 odds. This is a strong quantitative signal despite degraded data quality.
FULL ANALYSIS
Bayesian fusion reveals a strong edge on the over 8.5 (+15.2pp), but data quality is degraded (64%) and model agreement is very low. Sharp money and whale signals favor the home side, conflicting with the model's away lean on moneyline and spread. The total over is the most robust signal, but confidence is capped at SHARP_LEAN due to missing pitcher and weather data. Proceed with caution.
SHARP MONEY
Sharp edge on spread is 14.3% favoring home with strong signal. Whale volume ($265K) also sides with home. However, Bayesian fusion favors away on moneyline and spread, creating a conflict. Sharp money may be reacting to specific pitching or lineup information not captured in the model.
Recommended Sizing
1.0u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
TOTAL over 8.5
+18.5 EV 65% 1.0u
MONEYLINE New York Mets None
+3.6 EV 56% 0.5u
SPREAD New York Mets 1.5
+2.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 56%
New York Mets 108
  • Bayesian fusion posterior gives away 50.5% vs market 43.3%, a +7.2pp edge
  • Positive EV at +108 odds
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
New York Mets 1.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior gives away cover 53.9% vs market 50.0%, a +3.9pp edge
  • Marginal but positive EV
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 65%
OVER 8.5
  • Bayesian fusion posterior shows 65.2% probability of over 8.5, a +15.2pp edge over the market's 50% implied probability
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Bayesian fusion edges Mets +3.2pp vs market in data-starved game; under 22.5 at 74.9% MC projection but capped at 60 due to 48.7% career total WR. 0.5u on all three.
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