Home › NHL › Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
NHL
Minnesota Wild
Minnesota Wild
Wild
Dallas Stars
Stars
Dallas Stars
Full Game Analysis
NHL
Ω OMEGA PICK +253.3% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Minnesota Wild Minnesota Wild 1.5
"Minn +1.5 puck: sharps 54.9% edge + RLM + Dallas -15.8% injuries = +5.4 EV; fade juiced home"
EV / $100
+5.4
Win Prob
48%
Edge
-2.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
58%
TOTAL under 5.5
57%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors away side. 55.1% divergence on spread with strong signal. RLM detected on spread, total.
Sharp: away Boost: +4

Player Props Engine

Powered by OMEGA

Minnesota Wild

Dallas Stars

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -117 / -103 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -114 / 102 -
Value Line - -117 / 102 -
Sharp Action Best Line 2.5 (-650) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (217) ↓ - -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 2.5 (-175)
Market Consensus - - Over 6.0 (103)
De-Vigged Fair Value 241 / -241 -108 / 108 O/U 110 / -110
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Minnesota Wild

Q
Quinn Hughes
(D) day-to-day — Hughes (illness) will fly with the team for Game 1 in Dallas, according to Michael Russo of The Athletic.
Day-To-Day
Z
Zach Bogosian
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
C
Charlie Stramel
(C) out — Stramel signed a three-year, entry-level contract extension with the Wild on Monday.
Out

Dallas Stars

M
Miro Heiskanen
(D) day-to-day — day-to-day
Day-To-Day
R
Roope Hintz
(C) out — Hintz (lower body) won't be available for the first two games of the Stars' playoff run, Robert Tiffin of D Magazine reports Tuesday.
Out
N
Nathan Bastian
(RW) out — Head coach Glen Gulutzan said Monday that Bastian (hand) will be sidelined for 3-4 weeks, Lia Assimakopoulos of The Dallas Morning News reports.
Out
Game Preview
Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars
until puck drop
Current Line
Spread 2.5 (-650)
Total Over 2.5
Key Injuries
Quinn Hughes Day-To-Day
Zach Bogosian Day-To-Day
Miro Heiskanen Day-To-Day
Roope Hintz Out
Analysis starts at puck drop

Get Daily Picks

AI picks delivered to your inbox every morning.

You're in!

Already subscribed!

Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Minnesota Wild @ Dallas Stars

+5.4 EV
per $100 wagered
Minnesota Wild 62% Lean Calibrated
"Minn +1.5 puck: sharps 54.9% edge + RLM + Dallas -15.8% injuries = +5.4 EV; fade juiced home"
48% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 48%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -2.0%
Line Movement
Current Puck Line: Dallas Stars -1.5 -120 / Minnesota Wild +1.5 EVEN; ML: Dallas -120 / Minnesota +100; Total: 5.5 (-110)
Movement No significant movement
+EV on Minnesota ML/spread due to sharp divergence and Dallas injuries; breakeven for +100 ML is 50%, our 48% Minn win prob marginal but puck +EV huge at 70.5% fair cover
Model: 48.6% win rate | n=481 — NHL spreads lean profitable; ML strong profitable; H2H mixed (2-2 recent)
FULL ANALYSIS
Sharps hammering Minn puck +1.5 (54.9% edge, RLM, +252% EV vs Pinnacle) as Dallas reels from -15.8% Hintz/Heiskanen injuries vs Minn -12.6%; under 5.5 sharp too (11.5% edge). Bayesian flat but Tier 2 signals converge away; calibration demands lower conf on degraded data. Recent H2H Dallas covered but model 48.6% NHL WR overconfident.
SHARP MONEY
Strong RLM on spread (54.9% sharp edge away) and total under; moderate ML away; +252% EV on away puck at retail vs Pinnacle fair value
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Minnesota Wild 1.5
+5.4 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Minnesota Wild None
+2.1 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL under 5.5
+1.8 EV 57% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 58%
Minnesota Wild 100
  • Moderate sharp ML edge (1.1% away) + net injury advantage (-3.2% Dallas); breakeven 50% exceeded by 6%
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Minnesota Wild 1.5
  • Sharp money strongly on away puck (54.9% edge + RLM) with +252% EV vs Pinnacle fair (70.5% Minn cover); Dallas -15.8% injury hit > Minn -12.6%
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 57%
UNDER 5.5
  • Strong sharp under signal (11.5% edge + RLM); Pinnacle fair 52.4% under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Stars -15.8% injury hit (Hintz OUT) vs Wild -12.6% gives MIN ML +105 +6.6 EV at 52% prob
Partner Spotlight

Want to reach bettors who use data?

partnerships@degendailynews.com

21+ | Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-522-4700