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MLB
Miami Marlins
Miami Marlins
Marlins
Atlanta Braves
Braves
Atlanta Braves
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +49.9% EV
62% Lean
62% Lean
SPREAD
Atlanta Braves Atlanta Braves -1.5
"Whales drop $1M extreme vol on Braves (-143) + sharp 14.2% spread edge + Bayesian +2.6% home win prob"
EV / $100
+8.5
Win Prob
60%
Edge
+10.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
65%
TOTAL over 8.0
58%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 14.2% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$1053065 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (74% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 477 trades Kalshi: 45 trades Largest: $34965
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +143.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.0
Win Prob
41.8%
ML
139 / -139

Player Props Engine

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Miami Marlins

Atlanta Braves

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -139 / 116 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -133 / 120 -
Value Line - -143 / 116 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (300) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (155) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 8.5 (101)
De-Vigged Fair Value 167 / -167 -127 / 127 O/U 108 / -108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Miami Marlins

G
Griffin Conine
(LF) 10-day IL — Conine will undergo a left hamstring tendon excision next week, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kyle Stowers
(LF) 10-day IL — Stowers (hamstring) will begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Jacksonville on Friday, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
T
Thomas White
(SP) day-to-day — White (oblique) will make his second rehab assignment for Single-A Jupiter on Wednesday, the Marlins' television broadcast reports.
Day-To-Day
C
Christopher Morel
(LF) 10-day IL — Morel was scratched from the lineup for Friday's game against the Rockies due to a left oblique strain, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
E
Esteury Ruiz
(LF) 10-day IL — The Marlins placed Ruiz (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Sunday.
10-Day-IL
M
Maximo Acosta
(SS) 10-day IL — The Marlins announced Sunday that Acosta has been diagnosed with a Grade 1 left oblique strain and is expected to be out for 3-4 weeks, Christina De Nicola of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
A
Adam Mazur
(SP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Mazur (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Wednesday.
60-Day-IL
R
Ronny Henriquez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Marlins placed Henriquez (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
J
Jesus Tinoco
(RP) out — The Marlins re-signed Tinoco (elbow) to a minor-league contract Jan. 5.
Out

Atlanta Braves

E
Eli White
(RF) day-to-day — White (foot) is out of the lineup for Sunday's game against the Guardians.
Day-To-Day
S
Spencer Strider
(SP) 15-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss said that Strider (oblique) will begin a minor-league rehab assignment Thursday, Barrett Sallee of 680 The Fan Atlanta reports.
15-Day-IL
D
Danny Young
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta transferred Young (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Saturday.
60-Day-IL
M
Michael Harris II
(CF) Paternity — Atlanta placed Harris on the paternity list Saturday.
paternity
S
Sean Murphy
(C) 10-day IL — Murphy (hip) will have his rehab assignment delayed until Tuesday due to a personal matter, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
10-Day-IL
R
Reynaldo Lopez
(SP) Suspension — Lopez's suspension has been reduced from seven to five games after he reached a settlement with Major League Baseball, Chad Bishop of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports.
suspension
B
Blake Burkhalter
(RP) day-to-day — no
Day-To-Day
A
AJ Smith-Shawver
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Smith-Shawver (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Friday.
60-Day-IL
H
Ha-Seong Kim
(SS) 10-day IL — Atlanta placed Kim (finger) on its 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
H
Hurston Waldrep
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldrep will undergo surgery Monday to remove loose bodies from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joey Wentz
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta placed Wentz on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with a right ACL tear.
60-Day-IL
J
Jurickson Profar
(LF) Suspension — Profar will miss the full 2026 season after the appeal of his 162-game PED suspension was denied Thursday, Jeff Passan of ESPN.com reports.
Suspension
S
Spencer Schwellenbach
(SP) 60-day IL — Atlanta announced that Schwellenbach underwent a procedure Wednesday to remove bone spurs from his right elbow, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joe Jimenez
(RP) 60-day IL — Atlanta manager Walt Weiss acknowledged Wednesday that he's uncertain if Jimenez (knee) will be available to pitch at any point in 2026, Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (300)
Total Over 8.5
Key Injuries
Griffin Conine 10-Day-IL
Kyle Stowers 10-Day-IL
Eli White Day-To-Day
Spencer Strider 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Miami Marlins @ Atlanta Braves

+8.5 EV
per $100 wagered
Atlanta Braves 62% Lean
"Whales drop $1M extreme vol on Braves (-143) + sharp 14.2% spread edge + Bayesian +2.6% home win prob"
60% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 60%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +10.0%
Line Movement
Current Run Line: ATL -1.5 (-143) | Total: 8.0 | ML: ATL -143 / MIA +119
Movement No significant movement
+2.1 EV on home ML at -143; breakeven 58.8% exceeded by 1.2%; spread shows +EV potential
Model: 51.8% win rate | n=423 — ML profitable in lean/strong; reduce mid-confidence 3-5 pts
FULL ANALYSIS
Extreme $1M+ whale volume (102 wallets, institutional tier) on Braves ML at 75% confidence aligns with 14.2% sharp spread edge home and Bayesian +2.6% (61.5% posterior). MC even at 45.2% home but VERY_LOW model agreement and no pitchers ignored for signal confluence. Omega totals 24 vs market 8 screams over value despite historical total struggles.
SHARP MONEY
14.2% sharp edge on spread home + extreme whale volume $1M+ (institutional tier) at 75% confidence
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Atlanta Braves -1.5
+8.5 EV 62% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Atlanta Braves None
+2.1 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL over 8.0
+12.4 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 65%
Atlanta Braves -143
  • Bayesian posterior 61.5% vs market 58.8% (+2.6% edge) confirmed by PM 61% and whales
SPREAD PICK
● 62%
Atlanta Braves -1.5
  • Sharp 14.2% divergence favors home run line +49.9% EV vs Pinnacle fair value (37.5% home cover)
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
OVER 8.0
  • Omega total 24.0 and MC ~24.8 vs market 8.0 (16pt edge); Pinnacle fair under slight but models diverge hard
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Braves +149 ML: +5.3% Bayesian edge + EXTREME $144k whales (70% home) on model underdog
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