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MLB
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Cincinnati Reds
Reds
Cincinnati Reds
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
68% Strong
68% Strong
MONEYLINE
Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds
"Reds depleted pen + omega 24.0 total vs 7.5 market = +12.4 EV OVER; PIT ML overpriced despite injuries"
EV / $100
+5.2
Win Prob
31%
Edge
-18.6%
Size
1u
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds +1.5
65%
TOTAL Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 7.5
75%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +168.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +16.5
Win Prob
31.4%
ML
219 / -219

Player Props Engine

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Pittsburgh Pirates

Cincinnati Reds

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Pinnacle - 143 / -159 ↑ -
Pinnacle 1.5 (-118) - -
Pinnacle - - Over 7.5 (-103)
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) out — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Out
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) out — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Out
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day

Cincinnati Reds

C
Connor Burns
(C) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
N
Nick Lodolo
(SP) 15-day IL — Lodolo (finger) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A Daytona on Thursday, Charlie Goldsmith of Fox 19 Now Cincinnati reports.
15-Day-IL
C
Caleb Ferguson
(RP) 15-day IL — The Reds placed Ferguson (oblique) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
H
Hunter Greene
(SP) 60-day IL — The Reds placed Greene (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Monday.
60-Day-IL
J
Josh Staumont
(RP) day-to-day — The Reds re-signed Staumont to a minor-league contract Dec. 30.
Day-To-Day
A
Alex Young
(RP) out — Young revealed in a post on his personal Instagram account that he underwent season-ending surgery on his left elbow March 31.
Out
C
Carson Spiers
(SP) out — The Reds re-signed Spiers (elbow) to a minor-league contract with an invitation to spring training Monday.
Out
Game Preview
Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread 1.5 (-118)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Chris Devenski Out
Oddanier Mosqueda Out
Connor Burns Day-To-Day
Nick Lodolo 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Cincinnati Reds

+5.2 EV
per $100 wagered
Cincinnati Reds 68% Strong
"Reds depleted pen + omega 24.0 total vs 7.5 market = +12.4 EV OVER; PIT ML overpriced despite injuries"
31% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 31%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -18.6%
Line Movement
Current PIT -168 / CIN +139 / Total 7.5
Movement No movement data
Massive +EV on CIN ML (+139) vs overpriced PIT favoritism; model total implies 24 runs vs market 7.5
Model: 53.3% win rate | n=75 — Based on N=75 graded MLB outcomes; recent 7d -2.31u flags total volatility
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega Poisson/ELO convergence at 12-12 expected runs obliterates 7.5 total (edge 16.5); PIT -168 ML ignores bullpen carnage (4 key arms out/IL) and even win probs (31% CIN). H2H yesterday nailed PIT ML but rotation favors ABBOTT/KELLER opener duel into depleted pens. OVER 7.5 has +12.4 EV; fade market PIT bias.
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
MONEYLINE Cincinnati Reds
+5.2 EV 68% 1u
SPREAD Cincinnati Reds +1.5
+3.8 EV 65% 1u
TOTAL Cincinnati Reds / Pittsburgh Pirates OVER 7.5 7.5
+12.4 EV 75% 2u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 68%
Cincinnati Reds +129
  • Omega Poisson/ELO projects 35.6% CIN win prob vs market-implied 43.7%, creating +4.8 EV on +129
SPREAD PICK
● 65%
Cincinnati Reds +1.5
  • Omega spread 0.0 vs market PIT -156 implies overpriced favorite; CIN covers +1.5 in 68% of omega sims
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
● 72%
OVER 7.5 7.5
  • Omega total 24.0 vs market 7.5 (16.5 edge); Poisson projects 24 combined runs
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
CIN +129 has +4.8 EV (omega 35.6% win prob vs 60.9% implied) + Over 7.5 (16.5pt model edge on 24.0 total)
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