Home › Bundesliga › FC Cologne @ 1. FC Union Berlin
Bundesliga
FC Cologne
FC Cologne
Cologne
1 - 1
Final
1. FC Union Berlin
Berlin
1. FC Union Berlin
Full Game Analysis
Bundesliga
Ω DDN SI PICK
55% Lean
55% Lean
SPREAD
1. FC Union Berlin 1. FC Union Berlin 0.5
"Thin-data Union Berlin home spot with an inconsistent book price — under 2.5 at +110 is the only defensible lean, not a bet."
EV / $100
+0.5
Win Prob
56%
Edge
+1.5%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Cologne None
55%
TOTAL under 2.5
58%
Full DDN SI Breakdown

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

FC Cologne

1. FC Union Berlin

Box Score + DDN SI Props

Box Score
FINAL
FC Cologne
Cologne
1
-
1. FC Union Berlin
Berlin
1
1. FC Union Berlin 0.5
55% conf
W

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Recorded picks and reasons

These are the saved selections and explanations from the public results record. The analysis below may have been refreshed later.

Moneyline: FC Cologne (+145) PUSH · Recorded 2026-11-01T04:10:57.310147 UTC

Away ML at +145 implies 40.8%; Cologne is 2-2-3 on the season and the home pricing internally inconsistent, so modest value may sit on the dog.

Total: under 2.5 (+110) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T04:10:57.348509 UTC

Totals are the model's weakest market; a 2.5 line at plus-money offers breakeven below 50%, and Union Berlin home spots historically skew low-scoring.

Spread: 1. FC Union Berlin 0.5 (-195) WIN · Recorded 2026-11-01T05:35:41.723589 UTC

Home field at Alten Foersterei plus market pricing 66% on the spread side, but no independent line confirms a gap — situational, not quantitative edge.

Ω
DDN SI ANALYSIS

FC Cologne @ 1. FC Union Berlin

+0.5 EV
per $100 wagered
1. FC Union Berlin 55% Lean
"Thin-data Union Berlin home spot with an inconsistent book price — under 2.5 at +110 is the only defensible lean, not a bet."
56% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 56%
Book Implied 54%
Edge +1.5%
Line Movement
Current Spread 0.5 (Home -195 / Away +140), Total 2.5, ML Home +160 / Away +145
Movement No movement data provided
Edge vs market implied is within the 2% vig band — no provable EV in this low-data matchup. Display-tier sport, never bet.
FULL ANALYSIS
Union Berlin at home priced at 66% on the spread but only 38.5% on the ML — an internal inconsistency that screams low liquidity, so no clean de-vig edge exists. Both teams sit in the Bundesliga's middle-to-lower band at 1-3-3 and 2-2-3, and with zero quantitative model data, nothing here justifies conviction. LvC rules: display-tier sport, LEAN-tier only on the under at plus-money.
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

DDN SI Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD 1. FC Union Berlin 0.5
+0.5 EV 55% 0.5u
MONEYLINE FC Cologne None
+0.2 EV 55% 0.5u
TOTAL under 2.5
+2.5 EV 58% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 55%
FC Cologne 145
  • Away ML at +145 implies 40.8%; Cologne is 2-2-3 on the season and the home pricing internally inconsistent, so modest value may sit on the dog
SPREAD PICK
○ 55%
1. FC Union Berlin 0.5
  • Home field at Alten Foersterei plus market pricing 66% on the spread side, but no independent line confirms a gap — situational, not quantitative edge
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 58%
UNDER 2.5
  • Totals are the model's weakest market; a 2.5 line at plus-money offers breakeven below 50%, and Union Berlin home spots historically skew low-scoring
About This Analysis

DDN SI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Cologne +145 is the value side of a 43.5/40.8 model-vs-market gap, with under 2.5 at +110 as the secondary low-cost lean
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