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Portland Trail Blazers
Portland Trail Blazers
Blazers
San Antonio Spurs
Spurs
San Antonio Spurs
Full Game Analysis
NBA
Ω OMEGA PICK +48.6% EV
59% Lean
59% Lean
SPREAD
Portland Trail Blazers Portland Trail Blazers 3.5
"Blazers +3.5 (sharp RLM) + over 234.5 (15.7% sharp edge, 38% EV Bovada) in injury-riddled pace-up spot"
EV / $100
+1.8
Win Prob
55%
Edge
+5.0%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Portland Trail Blazers None
57%
TOTAL over 234.5
64%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors over side. 18.1% divergence on total with strong signal. RLM detected on spread.
Sharp: over Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$8270 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (100% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 6 trades Largest: $1899

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Portland Trail Blazers

San Antonio Spurs

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -165 / 140 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -161 / 142 -
Sharp Action Best Line - - Over 24.5 (200)
Market Consensus - - Over 232.0 (-106)
Market Consensus Best Line -3.5 (-108) - -
Value Line -3.5 (-110) ↓ - -
De-Vigged Fair Value -102 / 102 -152 / 152 O/U 102 / -102
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Portland Trail Blazers

V
Vit Krejci
(G) out — Krejci (calf) is listed as doubtful for Wednesday's game against the Spurs.
Out
J
Jerami Grant
(F) out — Grant (calf) is listed as out for Wednesday's game against San Antonio.
Out
S
Shaedon Sharpe
(G) out — Sharpe (calf) is doubtful for Wednesday game versus San Antonio.
Out
D
Damian Lillard
(G) out — Lillard (Achilles) defeated Devin Booker and Kon Knueppel in the final round of Saturday's 2026 State Farm 3-Point Contest, taking home his third title.
Out

San Antonio Spurs

S
Stephon Castle
(G) day-to-day — Castle (knee) is listed as doubtful for Wednesday's game against Portland.
Day-To-Day
V
Victor Wembanyama
(F) day-to-day — Wembanyama (ribs) is listed as doubtful for Wednesday's game against Portland, Shams Charania of ESPN reports.
Day-To-Day
E
Emanuel Miller
(F) out — Miller signed a two-way contract with the Spurs on Monday, Michael Scotto of USA Today reports.
Out
D
David Jones Garcia
(F) out — Jones Garcia underwent ankle surgery Wednesday and will miss the remainder of the 2025-26 season, Tom Orsborn of the San Antonio Express-News reports.
Out
Game Preview
Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs
until tip-off
Current Line
Total Over 24.5
Spread -3.5 (-108)
Key Injuries
Vit Krejci Out
Jerami Grant Out
Stephon Castle Day-To-Day
Victor Wembanyama Day-To-Day
Analysis starts at tip-off

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Portland Trail Blazers @ San Antonio Spurs

+1.8 EV
per $100 wagered
Portland Trail Blazers 59% Lean
"Blazers +3.5 (sharp RLM) + over 234.5 (15.7% sharp edge, 38% EV Bovada) in injury-riddled pace-up spot"
55% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 55%
Book Implied 50%
Edge +5.0%
Line Movement
Current SA -3.5 (Home -110 / Away -110) | Total 234.5 | ML Spurs -162 / Blazers +136
Movement No movement data available
No positive EV on Spurs ML (-162 requires 61.8% breakeven; our 55% model prob shows value on Portland +136 but injuries cap confidence). Spread/Total show marginal edges only on over.
Model: 48.9% win rate | n=403 — NBA model 48.9% (N=403); strong vs both teams (Spurs 18-10, Blazers 17-11); all conf reduced for missing MC/Poisson/ELO
FULL ANALYSIS
Portland gutted (Lillard/Grant/Sharpe/Krejci OUT) but Spurs also missing Wemby/Castle D2D + Miller/Jones Garcia; sharp money hammers over (15.7% edge) with RLM on spread to Blazers side. Pinnacle fair spread near pick'em (50.7%) vs market -3.5 shows value on road dog +136 ML. Totals losing historically but 38.7% EV on Bovada over too big to ignore.
SHARP MONEY
RLM on spread (public on home, line favors away) + sharp edge to Portland side; strongest signal on total over (15.7% divergence)
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Portland Trail Blazers 3.5
+1.8 EV 59% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Portland Trail Blazers None
+3.2 EV 57% 0.5u
TOTAL over 234.5
+4.1 EV 64% 1u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 60%
San Antonio Spurs -122
  • Omega win prob 55% + MC 56.2% exceeds -122 breakeven of 55%; model profitable on ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
San Antonio Spurs -3.0
  • MC sims show Spurs cover -3.0 at 49.6% (push 2.1%) despite poor data quality
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 203.0
  • MC under 48.6% + model totals losing across tiers; depleted rosters limit scoring
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Spurs ML +3.1 EV (56.2% MC win >55% breakeven) as Blazers missing Lillard/Grant/Sharpe
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