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MLB
San Diego Padres
San Diego Padres
Padres
1 - 7
Final
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK
65% Sharp Lean
65% Sharp Lean
SPREAD
Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates None
"PIT spread +350 = +61.3% EV (Pinnacle fair 36% vs retail) + 15% sharp edge; total 6 crushed vs 24 omega projection"
EV / $100
+61.3
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-3.7%
Size
1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
58%
TOTAL over 6.0
60%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Ω OMEGA LINE Poisson + ELO Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +154.0
Total
24.0
Edge: +18.0
Win Prob
32.5%
ML
207 / -207

Player Props Results

Final Box Score

San Diego Padres

Pittsburgh Pirates

Box Score + OMEGA Props

Injury Report

San Diego Padres

Y
Yuki Matsui
(RP) 15-day IL — Matsui (groin) has turned in two scoreless rehab appearances at Triple-A El Paso, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
G
Griffin Canning
(SP) 15-day IL — Canning (Achilles) will start for Double-A San Antonio on a rehab assignment Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Jason Adam
(RP) 15-day IL — Adam (quadriceps) will throw a simulated game Tuesday before making back-to-back rehab appearances with Double-A San Antonio on Friday and Saturday, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
J
Joe Musgrove
(SP) 15-day IL — Musgrove (elbow) said Thursday that he has resuemd playing catch, but he doesn't have a definitive timeline to return from the 15-day injured list, Jeff Sanders of The San Diego Union Tribune reports.
15-Day-IL
S
Sung-Mun Song
(3B) 10-day IL — Song (oblique) has gone 3-for-7 with two RBI through two rehab games with Triple-A El Paso.
10-Day-IL
M
Matt Waldron
(SP) 15-day IL — Waldron (lower body) tossed three scoreless innings in a rehab start with Triple-A El Paso on Friday, allowing two hits and striking out three batters.
15-Day-IL
Y
Yu Darvish
(SP) out — The Padres placed Darvish (elbow) on the restricted list Wednesday.
Out
B
Bryan Hoeing
(RP) 15-day IL — The Padres placed Hoeing (elbow) on the 15-day injured list Wednesday.
15-Day-IL
W
Will Wagner
(3B) 10-day IL — The Padres placed Wagner (oblique) on the 10-day injured list Wednesday.
10-Day-IL
J
Jhony Brito
(RP) 60-day IL — Brito (forearm) has been throwing bullpens in Padres camp, per MLB.com.
60-Day-IL
B
Blake Hunt
(C) day-to-day — Hunt is dealing with an oblique injury and has been shut down from activity, Kevin Acee of The San Diego Union-Tribune reports.
Day-To-Day

Pittsburgh Pirates

C
Chris Devenski
(RP) day-to-day — The Pirates reassigned Devenski (head) to minor-league camp Sunday.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Triolo
(SS) 10-day IL — The Pirates placed Triolo on the 10-day injured list Sunday due to a patellar tendon injury in his right knee, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
10-Day-IL
O
Oddanier Mosqueda
(RP) day-to-day — Mosqueda will not throw for a couple weeks due to left forearm inflammation, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Jones
(SP) 60-day IL — Pirates senior director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said Monday that Jones (elbow) should be ready for game action when he's eligible to return from the 60-day injured list in late May, Kevin Gorman of TribLive.com reports.
60-Day-IL
A
Anthony Solometo
(SP) day-to-day — Solometo was pulled off his rehab assignment with Single-A Bradenton in late June after he experienced recurrent shoulder discomfort, Noah Hiles of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports.
Day-To-Day
Box Score
FINAL
San Diego Padres
Padres
1
-
Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates
7
Pittsburgh Pirates None
65% conf
W

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

San Diego Padres @ Pittsburgh Pirates

+61.3 EV
per $100 wagered
Pittsburgh Pirates 65% Sharp Lean
"PIT spread +350 = +61.3% EV (Pinnacle fair 36% vs retail) + 15% sharp edge; total 6 crushed vs 24 omega projection"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -3.7%
Line Movement
Current PIT -154 / Total 6.0
Movement No movement data
No ML edge; massive +EV on PIT spread at +350 (61.3% vs fair 35.9%) per +EV analysis
Model: 53.4% win rate | n=322 — MLB 53.4% (N=322); vs PIT 12-11, vs SD 13-9; yesterday 3-0 sweep on SD sides
FULL ANALYSIS
Massive +61% EV on PIT spread +350 (fair 36% vs retail 22%) with 15% sharp divergence confirms home value despite MC even matchup. Total crushed: omega/MC project 24 runs vs market 6.0 (yesterday under hit but early season pitching ERAs regress). SD 3-1 road but Pirates 3-1 home; cap props at 60 (unvalidated rosters).
SHARP MONEY
15.1% sharp edge on spread favoring PIT (strong signal); sharp-public divergence confirms home side value
Recommended Sizing
1u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.

OMEGA Replay

ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Pittsburgh Pirates None
+61.3 EV 65% 1u
MONEYLINE San Diego Padres None
+1.8 EV 58% 0.5u
TOTAL over 6.0
+3.2 EV 60% 0.5u
MONEYLINE PICK
● 64%
San Diego Padres -170
  • Omega ML -170 implies 62.9% win prob; meets breakeven exactly but ELO 62.4% home win prob suggests mild value
SPREAD PICK
○ 58%
San Diego Padres 0.0
  • ELO projects Padres +3.5 spread edge (1530 vs 1618 rating) despite Poisson pick'em
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 55%
UNDER 24.0
  • Model total 24.0 unusually high for MLB; calibration shows totals losing across tiers
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Padres ML -170 (ELO 62% win prob) meets breakeven but 0 EV; lean spread 0.0 off +3.5 ELO edge vs depleted PIT staff
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