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MLB
Washington Nationals
Washington Nationals
Nationals
New York Mets
Mets
New York Mets
Full Game Analysis
MLB
Ω OMEGA PICK +45.1% EV ALIGNED
54% Lean
54% Lean
SPREAD
Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 1.5
"Nats +1.5: bayes 53.9% cover vs 50% implied + omega 0.0 spread edge, +2.9 EV despite whale steam home"
EV / $100
+2.9
Win Prob
46%
Edge
-4.3%
Size
0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
46%
TOTAL under 6.2
52%
Full OMEGA Breakdown
Sharp Money Signal
Sharp money favors home side. 15.9% divergence on spread with strong signal.
Sharp: home Boost: +2
Whale Activity Detected
$868094 in prediction market whale trades detected on this game. Strong home consensus (79% of whale volume).
Whales: home Polymarket: 231 trades Kalshi: 694 trades Largest: $129610
Ω OMEGA LINE OMEGA Independent Projection
Spread
0.0
Edge: +1.5
Total
22.5
Edge: +16.3
Win Prob
35.0%
ML
186 / -186

Player Props Engine

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Washington Nationals

New York Mets

Betting Odds Comparison
Source Spread Moneyline Total
Sharp Action Best Line - -208 / 169 ↑ -
Market Consensus - -198 / 176 -
Value Line - -230 / 180 -
Sharp Action Best Line -3.0 (215) - -
Market Consensus -1.5 (110) ↓ - -
Market Consensus - - Over 7.5 (-116)
De-Vigged Fair Value 117 / -117 -188 / 188 O/U -108 / 108
Line Movement
Open Current

Injury Report

Washington Nationals

C
Clayton Beeter
(RP) 15-day IL — Beeter (forearm) had an MRI come back clean and was cleared to resume throwing Tuesday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
T
Tyler Baum
(DH) day-to-day
Day-To-Day
J
Josiah Gray
(SP) 60-day IL — Gray (elbow) remains shut down from throwing and will undergo additional testing, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
60-Day-IL
C
Cole Henry
(RP) 15-day IL — Henry (shoulder) played catch Saturday, Mark Zuckerman of NatsJournal.com reports.
15-Day-IL
K
Ken Waldichuk
(RP) 60-day IL — The Nationals transferred Waldichuk (elbow) to the 60-day injured list Thursday.
60-Day-IL
T
Trevor Williams
(SP) 60-day IL — Williams (elbow) began pitching off a mound at the Nationals' spring training complex this weekend, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Jarlin Susana
(RP) day-to-day — Susana underwent surgery last week to repair a right lat tear, Spencer Nusbaum of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
T
Travis Sykora
(SP) day-to-day — Sykora will undergo a UCL reconstruction on his right elbow in two weeks, Andrew Golden of The Washington Post reports.
Day-To-Day
D
DJ Herz
(SP) 60-day IL — Herz (elbow) threw a bullpen session Friday, Jessica Camerato of MLB.com reports.
60-Day-IL
J
Joan Adon
(RP) out — no
Out
T
Tyler Stuart
(SP) out — Stuart underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this week, Bobby Blanco of MASNSports.com reports.
Out

New York Mets

L
Luis Robert Jr.
(CF) day-to-day — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said Wednesday that Robert's back pain hasn't improved, adding that the outfielder will undergo an MRI, Jorge Castillo of ESPN.com reports.
Day-To-Day
K
Kodai Senga
(SP) 15-day IL — The Mets placed Senga on the 15-day injured list Tuesday due to lumbar spine inflammation.
15-Day-IL
F
Francisco Lindor
(SS) 10-day IL — Lindor (calf) will wear a boot for the next week and remain shut down for at least three weeks, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reports.
10-Day-IL
J
Jorge Polanco
(1B) 10-day IL — Manager Carlos Mendoza said Friday that the Mets are awaiting the results of an MRI on Polanco's right wrist as the veteran infielder remains sidelined due to a sore Achilles, Max Goodman of NJ.com reports.
10-Day-IL
K
Kevin Herget
(RP) day-to-day — Herget signed a minor league contract that includes an invitation to spring training with the Mets on Thursday, Will Sammon of The Athletic reports.
Day-To-Day
J
Jared Young
(1B) 10-day IL — The Mets placed Young on the 10-day injured list Wednesday, retroactive to Monday, due to a meniscus tear in his left knee.
10-Day-IL
J
Joey Gerber
(RP) 15-day IL — Gerber struck out five and gave up two hits and a walk over two scoreless innings of relief in Monday's loss to the Dodgers.
15-Day-IL
A
A.J. Minter
(RP) 15-day IL — Minter (lat) will begin a rehab assignment with Single-A St. Lucie on Thursday, Michael Mayer of MetsmerizedOnline.com reports.
15-Day-IL
M
Mike Tauchman
(RF) out — Tauchman underwent surgery Thursday to repair the torn meniscus in his left knee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports.
Out
N
Nate Lavender
(RP) day-to-day — Lavender (elbow) cleared outright waivers Wednesday and was returned to the Mets.
Day-To-Day
J
Justin Hagenman
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Hagenman on the 60-day injured list Saturday due to a rib fracture.
60-Day-IL
R
Robert Stock
(RP) out — Stock experienced shoulder discomfort while playing with Team Israel in the World Baseball Classic and will undergo testing, Laura Albanese of Newsday reports.
Out
G
Grae Kessinger
(3B) out — Mets manager Carlos Mendoza said that Kessinger will get imaging done after suffering a left knee injury in Friday's Grapefruit League game against the Cardinals, SNY Mets reports.
Out
D
Dedniel Nunez
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets transferred Nunez (elbow) from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day IL on Monday.
60-Day-IL
T
Tylor Megill
(SP) 60-day IL — The Mets and Megill (elbow) avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $2.5 million contract Thursday, Ari Alexander of 7 News Boston reports.
60-Day-IL
R
Reed Garrett
(RP) 60-day IL — The Mets placed Garrett (elbow) on the 60-day injured list Tuesday.
60-Day-IL
Game Preview
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets
until first pitch
Current Line
Spread -3.0 (215)
Total Over 7.5
Key Injuries
Clayton Beeter 15-Day-IL
Tyler Baum Day-To-Day
Luis Robert Jr. Day-To-Day
Kodai Senga 15-Day-IL
Analysis starts at first pitch

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Ω
OMEGA ANALYSIS

Washington Nationals @ New York Mets

+2.9 EV
per $100 wagered
Washington Nationals 54% Lean
"Nats +1.5: bayes 53.9% cover vs 50% implied + omega 0.0 spread edge, +2.9 EV despite whale steam home"
46% Win Probability
EV Breakdown
Model Prob 46%
Book Implied 50%
Edge -4.3%
Line Movement
Current Mets -1.5 / Nats +1.5 (-110) | O/U 6.2 (-110) | Mets -175 / Nats +135
Movement No significant line movement detected
net_home_injury_advantage
Positive EV on Nats ML (+135) at 45.7% our prob vs 42.6% implied; spread +1.5 also +2.9 EV
FULL ANALYSIS
Omega pick'em spread vs Mets -1.5 market with Bayesian 53.9% Nats cover (+3.9pp edge); MC even projected 9.9-9.8 supports flat line. Injuries net +2.3% home but quant edge overrides. Sharp under total strong (13.7% div, RLM) but conflicting MC/omega high totals; whale extreme Mets reduces away conf.
SHARP MONEY
Bayes/omega edge away despite weak sharp ML home; strong sharp under total ignored for side
Recommended Sizing
0.5u
Reduced sizing. Edge exists but sample or signal strength is moderate.
ALL PICKS AT A GLANCE
SPREAD Washington Nationals 1.5
+2.9 EV 54% 0.5u
MONEYLINE Washington Nationals None
+7.4 EV 46%
TOTAL under 6.2
+1.8 EV 52%
MONEYLINE PICK
○ 46%
Washington Nationals 135
  • Bayesian edge +9.3pp (45.7% our vs 36.4% devig market) on Nats ML
SPREAD PICK
○ 54%
Washington Nationals 1.5
  • Bayesian posterior 53.9% Nats cover +1.5 vs market 50% + omega even spread vs -1.5 market
TOTAL (OVER/UNDER)
○ 52%
UNDER 6.2
  • Sharp edge 13.7% under + RLM + Pinnacle fair 52.1% under
About This Analysis

Our AI analyzes team matchups, recent form, and statistical trends to generate betting recommendations.

Picks are updated every 30 minutes with the latest data.

Edge Summary
Mets spread -2.2 +48% EV vs Pinnacle fair (43.5% cover) + strong sharp/ whale home, data degraded cap lean
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